Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Monday,
January 5 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be warming
and sunny compared to the recent colder weather. High temperatures will be in the low 50s
today across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. In the Dallas/Fort Worth region north towards
southern Oklahoma, temperatures will top out in the mid- to low 40s. Over the Edwards Plateau winds will begin
light from the south and will build to moderate wind strengths this
afternoon. In the communities
surrounding the Edwards Plateau, winds will be from the northeast switching,
coming from the southeast this afternoon.
In northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, winds will be from the east at
light levels. Tonight, southern Oklahoma
will be clear with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 miles
per hour. Over Texas, temperatures will
be mostly in the low 30’s. Skies will be
mostly clear with winds at light levels form the southwest. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies will greet the
day. Temperatures are expected to rise
into the low 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities.
Winds will remain from the southwest at light levels. In southern Oklahoma, temperatures will once
again remain in the low 40s. Winds will
be from the east initially then switching coming from the south. Tomorrow night southern Oklahoma temperatures
will drop back into the teens on moderate northerly winds. Northern Texas, southward across the Edwards
Plateau temperatures will return to the mid- to upper 20s. In the surrounding communities temperatures
will remain above freezing but stay within the 30 degree range.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas today will remain cool, with most areas struggling
to get to the 50 degree mark. Winds today will be from the south across the Edwards
Plateau, building from light conditions this morning to moderately strong winds
this afternoon. In the surrounding
communities winds will begin from the northeast then switch during the day,
coming from the southeast. Across the
entire region warming will be occurring and history shows that as that process
begins it will take some time for pollen to be released. Tonight conditions cool with low temperatures
remaining in the low 30s across the Edwards Plateau and the mid-30s in the surrounding
communities. Winds will be from the southwest
at light to moderate conditions.
Tomorrow the southwesterly winds continue at light strengths. Sunny and mostly sunny skies will warm the
region into the lower 60s. Winds will be
from the southwest at light conditions.
With the warmer temperatures, significant pollination is a potentiality tomorrow. Tomorrow night, temperatures return back to
very cold conditions with northerly winds and most areas in the 20’s to low 30’s.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat
today and High Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions
for pollen release today and a severe threat tomorrow. The tree populations
have been exposed to prolonged cold conditions.
It usually takes a day or two for significant pollination to occur after
such events. Today temperatures will barely
get into the 50s so some pollen may be released but we do not expect large
amounts. Tomorrow, temperatures will
reach into the 60s and there will be a high threat of pollen dispersal,
entrainment and travel to the northeast on southwesterly winds. The wind trajectories, however show the
atmosphere to be dense and thus most of the entrained pollen will be travelling
close to the ground where impaction often takes it out of the airstream.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org