Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather:
Tuesday, January 6 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will be warming and sunny briefly as another
push of very cold air is headed towards Texas tonight and tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the mid- 50s to
low 60s today across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. In the Dallas/Fort Worth region north towards
southern Oklahoma, temperatures will top out in the mid-50s to the south but
only rise to the low 40s in the population of trees in the Arbuckle Mountains. Skies will be mostly sunny over the region
and winds will be light mostly from the south and southwest. In Oklahoma winds will begin to build coming
from the north as cold conditions move in tonight. After sunset, mostly clear skies will remain
to the north but partly to mostly cloudy skies will build to the south across
Texas. Temperatures in southern Oklahoma
will drop into the teens tonight. In
Texas the Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 20s to low 30s and the
surrounding communities will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Winds will shift late this afternoon and overnight
coming from the north. Tomorrow will see
the return of cold conditions with the warmest areas along the southern edge of
the Edwards Plateau only rising to the mid-40 degree mark. Communities on the Plateau as well as in
north Texas will remain in the 30s. In
southern Oklahoma the high temperatures will remain below freezing. Winds will build to moderately strong
conditions (20 to 25 miles per hour) across the region and significant wind
chill will make being outdoors uncomfortable.
Tomorrow night winds will remain from the north at moderately strong
conditions and temperatures across the entire region are forecast to be in the
teens. The warmest communities along the
southern edge of the Edwards Plateau will remain at the mid-20 degree mark.
Trajectory weather:
Air mass trajectories over Texas
today will warm into the 50s and low 60s, but it will be a brief with very cold
conditions tomorrow. Winds today will start from the south and southwest across
the Edwards Plateau at light conditions, then turn late in the day and
overnight coming from the north with very cold air behind them. Across the entire region today warming will
be occurring, but history shows that as that process begins it takes some time
for the trees to warm and pollen to be released. Tonight conditions cool down once again with
low temperatures remaining in the low 30s to upper 20s across the Edwards
Plateau and the upper-30s in the surrounding communities. Winds will be from the north at light
building overnight to tomorrows moderately strong conditions. Tomorrow the cold northerly winds build towards
strong conditions. Mostly cloudy skies
and cold temperatures will keep tomorrows highs in the 30s across the Plateau
and mid 40s in the surrounding communities.
Trees will continue to struggle to release pollen with such cold
temperatures. In addition, on the strong
north winds any particles entrained in the atmosphere will move towards the
south and away from most of the heavily populated areas.
OUTLOOK: ******
Moderate to Severe (locally) Threat today and Low Threat
Tomorrow. The tree populations have been exposed to prolonged cold
conditions. It usually takes a day or
two for significant pollination to occur after such events. Today temperatures will get into the 50s to
low 60s so some pollen may be released but we do not expect large amounts. Severe levels may occur in very localized areas. Tomorrow, temperatures will fall back into
the 30s and 40’s where pollination is hindered.
Very cold conditions will take over once again with tomorrow night’s
lows in the teens across the region. The
wind trajectories show the atmosphere to be dense travelling from the north and thus any entrained pollen
will be close to the ground where impaction often takes it out of
the airstream.
Trajectory
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Junction, TX
Sonora, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]