Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Friday,
January 9 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will continue to
be cold with the warmest areas in the lower 40s across southern Texas and in the
mid- to upper 30s across the Edwards Plateau and northward. Skies across Texas
will be mostly cloudy but thinning to the north with the Dallas/Fort Worth area
expecting to begin the day with sunny skies.
Cloudy conditions will build during the day. Temperatures in most areas dipped below
freezing overnight and as the day proceeds will take some time to warm. Winds will be from the north across the Edwards
Plateau and in north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Wind strength will be light to moderate across
the region. The entire Edwards Plateau
will have a chance of precipitation today, with area in the low 30s may see
snow, freezing rain, and/or sleet. The edge communities will begin the day with
slightly warmer conditions thus frozen precipitation is not expected in these
communities. High temperatures across
the entire region are expected to remain in the 30s with the southernmost communities
reaching the low 40s. In Oklahoma, high
temperatures will not get out of the 30 degree range with moderate winds from the
north. Tonight the chance of precipitation
remains but will taper off a bit. Areas
with 40% chance of precipitation today will edge down to a 20% chance
overnight. Temperatures will also fall
with most areas bottoming out in the low to mid-20s. Tomorrow the chance of rain returns across the
region. Most areas will have a 40-50%
chance with cloudy skies. Temperatures
will remain in the low 30s, except in San Antonio and along the southern I-35
corridor to the east where temperatures will approach 40 degrees. Winds will be light starting from the
northeast but starting to switch to a more southerly flow. Tomorrow night will almost be a duplicate of
the daytime conditions. Temperatures
will remain in the low to mid 30s under cloudy skies and the chance of
precipitation being between 20% to the west and 40 to 50% elsewhere.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Southern Oklahoma today will move to the south on light winds
then tomorrow will reverse with a more northerly movement. Winds will be light and somewhat variable over
the region. Temperatures across the region
will top out in the mid-30s today and the upper 30s tomorrow. Skies will be mostly clear today and tonight
then becoming partly cloudy then mostly cloudy tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tomorrow
night increasing moisture will occur with a 40% chance of precipitation. That precipitation may fall as snow, freezing
rain and/or sleet. Overall poor conditions for pollination as the trees will
not see conditions outside of the 30s over the forecast period. In addition any pollination will be entrained
in dense air moving along the ground surface that usually causes impaction and
deposition out of the air stream. On top
of the overall bad conditions the entire region will have a chance of
precipitation during the forecast period.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat Tomorrow. The tree populations continue to be
exposed to prolonged cold conditions. Today
conditions will remain cold over the forecast period. Southern Oklahoma is not expected to warm
above the upper 30s today or tomorrow.
In addition, there will be an increasing chance of precipitation that may
fall as frozen or partially frozen rain and sleet towards the end of the
forecast period. Winds will be light to
moderate moving towards the northeast today then reverse overnight and move
southward as another push of cold air comes into the region for tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will remain in the
upper 30s. Overall conditions will be poor
for pollen release, entrainment and travel today, tonight, and tomorrow along
with tomorrow night. For these reasons
the forecast is LOW for the next two day period. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.