Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Saturday, January 10 and Sunday
January 11 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will continue to
be cold with the warmest areas in the mid-30s. Skies across Texas will be mostly cloudy and
there is a chance of precipitation from the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region
southward to San Antonio and beyond.
With temperatures only getting into the mid-30s today the chance of
frozen precipitation will be a concern.
Rain, frozen rain, along with sleet is expected to occur sporadically as
the cold air mass over Texas continues to influence the weather picture. Temperatures today across the region will
remain in the mid-30s and below. Winds
will be light to moderate from the south and southeast to the north in the
border areas with Oklahoma as well in areas in the far west. The central Edwards Plateau and surrounding
communities will experience light winds from the northeast. Tonight, conditions will worsen with
temperatures cooling only into the lower 30s but the chance of precipitation
both liquid and frozen will increase.
Temperatures across Texas will be in the low 30’s and to the north in
Oklahoma in the 20s. Winds across the
region, except along the eastern I-35 corridor will be from the south. From
Austin to San Antonio a light north easterly flow will continue. Across central Texas the chance of rain will
be 50% to 70% tonight. Tomorrow, cloudy
skies will remain and a slight chance of rain will continue, especially
early. Overall conditions will improve
and temperatures will rebound into the 40s and 50s. Areas to the south and west will bounce back
into the mid- to upper 50s whereas the eastern edge communities northward into
southern Oklahoma will remain in the 40s.
Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will remain with a slight chance of precipitation
in north Texas and southern Oklahoma.
Low temperatures will remain above freezing, in the 30s, and winds will
be from the south to southwest at light conditions
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma today and tomorrow will move to the
north on light winds. The air will
continue to be cold and dense thus movement at the lowest levels will continue
at or near ground level. Temperatures
will remain cold at the ground, only reaching the upper 30s today, and mid- to
low 40s tomorrow. Beginning tonight
there will be a 30% chance of precipitation that will build to 40% tomorrow
before declining tomorrow night. The
precipitation may fall as sleet or frozen rain overnight as temperatures will
be in the upper 20s. Tomorrow,
conditions will improve slightly with high temperatures in the low 40 degree
range. There will continue to be a 40%
chance of precipitation and winds will remain light.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow. The tree populations
continue to be exposed to prolonged cold and wet conditions. Today conditions will remain cold and damp
with the chance of rain, and/or frozen precipitation increasing towards this
evening and building into tomorrow. The forecast area is not expected to get
out of the 30 degree range today or tonight.
Precipitation, in whatever form that it falls in will occur across the entire
forecast area. Winds will be light moving
from the south across the Arbuckle Mountain area. Tomorrow, the area will warm just into the
mid- 40s. There will continue to be a chance of rain in the forecast. The
potential for pollen being released, and entrained in the atmosphere will be
slightly better today, but the prolonged period of really bad conditions and
continued moisture in the atmosphere should dampen any significant release of
pollen. The dense air and light wind
speeds should keep it local and if there are showers they will tend to knock
down an entrained pollen concentrations. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.