Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Thursday,
January 15 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be improving
and warming up. Across the region skies
will be clearing for the first time in some time and temperatures will be
warming into the 50s today then 60s tomorrow.
Clear skies will occur to the north this morning with mostly sunny skies
in the Dallas/ Ft. Worth metro region.
Further south across the Edwards Plateau, the day will dawn with partly
cloudy conditions that will give way to mostly sunny skies. The region will be in the mid-50s today with
north to northwest winds at light to moderate levels. Tonight mostly clear skies will dominate and
temperatures will remain in the 30s in most areas, the exceptions being in
southern Oklahoma as well as the western communities on the Edwards
Plateau. Winds will be light and variable
to the north and from the northwest at light levels elsewhere. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will occur in
southern Oklahoma southward through the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and into the
eastern portion of the I-35 corridor past Austin. On the Plateau partly cloudy skies will
occur. High temperatures across the
entire region will be in the 60s creating the first warm day in some time. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest. Wind speeds will be from 5 to 10 miles per
hour. Tomorrow night partly cloudy
conditions will build across Texas with southern Oklahoma remaining clear. Low temperatures will be in the low 40s to
upper 30s. Temperatures in southern
Oklahoma will be in the 30s overnight.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move from the north to south on
light to moderate winds. Temperatures
will be in the mid 50’s over the entire area and the skies clear for the day
and into tomorrow. Trajectories will be
moving southward on light to moderate winds from the north to northwest. The atmosphere will be warming with the
dense air becoming more buoyant. Temperatures will top out in the mid-50s
today. Tomorrow, temperatures will get
even warmer with highs expected in the low 60s.
Southern Oklahoma will remain sunny across the area with temperatures in
the low 60s. There have been a long run
of cold days, in which little pollen has been recorded. Today and especially tomorrow, the region
will have warmer conditions with readings in the 50s and 60s. With the warm conditions the release of
pollen should be much more common and with winds in the 5 to 10 miles per hour
range some long distance dispersal is expected.
Warmer conditions will also result in a more buoyant atmosphere which is
also a factor in long distance dispersal.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today and High
conditions Tomorrow. The tree populations have continued to be exposed to
prolonged cold and wet conditions. Today
conditions will change with high temperature in the 50 degree range and sunny
skies. Tomorrow temperatures will warm
to the mid-60s under sunny skies. Pollen
release should begin, however winds will be light and variable. The
potential for pollen being released and entrained in the atmosphere will be
better tomorrow. Today the air may still
be dense and thus will not move as far
but it will be to the south. Tomorrow
will have much better conditions for release and entrainment for travel with
temperatures expected in the 60s .
Throughout the forecast period winds will be very light and thus will
not dominate the process of dispersal downwind. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.