Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Thursday, January 15 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will be improving and warming up. Across the region skies will be clearing for
the first time in some time and temperatures will be warming into the 50s today
then 60s tomorrow. Clear skies will
occur to the north this morning with mostly sunny skies in the Dallas/ Ft.
Worth metro regioin. Further south
across the Edwards Plateau the day will dawn with partly cloudy conditions that will give way
to mostly sunny conditions. The region
will be in the mid-50s today with north to northwest winds at light to moderate
levels. Tonight mostly clear skies will
dominate and temperatures will remain in the 30s in most areas, the exceptions
being in southern Oklahoma as well as the western communities on the Edwards
Plateau. Winds will be light and
variable to the north and from the northwest at light levels elsewhere. Tomorrow mostly sunny skies will occur in
southern Oklahoma southward through the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and into the
eastern portion of the I-35 corridor past Austin. On the Plateau partly cloudy skies will
occur. High temperatures across the
entire region will be in the 60s creating the first warm day in some time. Winds will be light to moderate from the
southwest. Wind speeds will be from 5 to
10 miles per hour. Tomorrow night partly
cloudy conditions will build across Texas with southern Oklahoma remaining
clear. Low temperatures will be in the
low 40s to upper 30s. Temperatures in southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will move from the north to northwest on light to
moderate winds. Temperatures will be in
the mid 50’s over the entire area and the skies will be partly clear early then
clearing for the rest of the day.
Trajectories will be moving southward on light to moderate winds from
the north to northwest. The atmosphere will be warming with the dense
air becoming more buoyant. Temperatures will top out in the mid-50s. Tomorrow, temperatures today will get even
warmer with highs expected in the low 60s.
The Edwards Plateau will be partly cloudy in places but most of the area
will be sunny with temperatures in the low 60s.
There have been a long run of cold days, in which little pollen has been
recorded. Today and specifically
tomorrow the region will have warmer conditions with readings in the 50s and
60s. With the warm conditions the
release of pollen should be much more common and with winds in the 5 to 10
miles per hour range some long distance dispersal is expected. Warmer conditions will also result in a more
buoyant atmosphere which is also a factor in long distance dispersal.
OUTLOOK: ***High Threat today and Severe
threat Tomorrow. The tree populations have
continued to be exposed to prolonged cold and wet conditions over the past week
or so. Today conditions will change with
high temperature in the 50 degree range and sunny skies. Tomorrow temperatures will warm to the
mid-60s under sunny skies. Pollen
release should begin, however winds will be light and variable. The potential for pollen being released and
entrained in the atmosphere will be better tomorrow. Today the air may still be dense and thus
will not move as far but it will move to the south. Tomorrow will have much better conditions for
release and entrainment for travel with temperatures expected in the 60s . Throughout the forecast period winds will be
very light and thus will not dominate the process of dispersal downwind.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org