Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Friday,
January 16 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be warming
with highs expected in the 60 degree range and tomorrow in the 70 degree range. Across the region skies will be sunny but
with some clouds building in tonight across the southern Edwards Plateau. Temperatures today will be in the 60s and cool
into the 30s tonight. The warmest
localities tonight will be along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau where
lows will cool into the lower 40s.
Elsewhere tonights temperatures will be in the 30’s but it is not
expected to freeze. Even to the north in
southern Oklahoma the lows will be in the upper 30s tonight. Winds will be from the southwest across and
around the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow
sunny skies will once again prevail with temperatures across the southern areas
in the 70s. The surrounding communities
north toward southern Oklahoma temperatures in the 60s are expected. Winds will be from the southwest to west at
moderate conditions. As with today,
temperatures will decrease to the north, but the difference between central
Texas and north Texas and Oklahoma will only be 10 degrees. Overnight mostly clear conditions will remain
with temperatures in the lower 30s in southern Oklahoma and across the southern
plateau. In the surrounding communities lows will be in the lower 40s. Tomorrow night winds will be from the north
and west, however the westerly component will begin to change with winds coming
from the northwest.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will move from the south and southwest towards the
north and northwest on light to moderate conditions. The southerly winds will continue tonight,
tomorrow and eventually turn coming from the north tomorrow night into Saturday. Tomorrow winds will increase during the day
to moderate conditions. The stronger
winds will die down tomorrow evening and into tomorrow night. Conditions will be warming tomorrow with high
temperatures in the lower 70s across the southern plateau and into the southern
edge communities. To the north, beginning
in Austin towards the Dallas/Ft. Worth area and into southern Oklahoma, high
temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
Skies will be clear and sunny.
Tomorrow night the warmest locations will drop back into the 40s whereas
the cooler areas to the north will drop into the 30s. Winds will remain relatively light from the
west shifting towards a northerly flow.
OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat today and Severe threat Today and
Tomorrow. The tree populations have been exposed to prolonged cold and wet
conditions over the past few weeks.
Today conditions will change with high temperature in the 60 degree
range and sunny skies. Tomorrow temperatures
will warm to the mid-70s under sunny skies.
Pollen release should begin, however winds will be light and variable at
low levels. The potential for pollen
being released and entrained in the atmosphere will be good both days. Today the winds will move towards the north and northwest as most areas will see a
southwest wind at light levels. The
trajectories show little buoyancy and thus entrained pollen will be moving in
the lower atmosphere where impaction is common.
Tomorrow winds will continue from the southwest but at stronger levels
with gusts expected at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Both days will see conditions for release and entrainment for travel
with warm temperatures expected. Large releases of pollen is expected.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: email@example.com