Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Saturday,
January 17 and Sunday, January – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions
will be warm with highs expected in the 60 degree and low 70 degree range under
sunny skies. Tomorrow a slight cooling
will occur with most areas reaching the 60s.
Winds will initially begin from the southwest at light to moderate
conditions then switch coming from the north and northwest at light to moderate
levels. Overnight skies will be mostly
clear with moderate winds from the north and temperatures in the low 30s across
the Edwards Plateau and northward into southern Oklahoma. The edge communities along the I-35 corridor
will only get down into the lower 40 degree range. Tomorrow sunny to mostly sunny conditions
will occur. Temperatures will cool
slightly, remaining only in the 60s throughout the area. Winds will remain from the northeast to northwest
across the central portion of the forecast area. On the Edwards Plateau to the west and to the
north in Oklahoma a southwesterly breeze will begin to build. Tomorrow night will be mostly clear with
temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s across most of the Edwards Plateau,
northward into southern Oklahoma. The
edge communities will only move down into the lower 40s. Winds across the entire forecast area will be
from the south at light levels.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains will move toward the
southeast on light to moderate northerly winds. Trajectories will start to turn back northward late tomorrow. Conditions will be warm today
and slightly warmer tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid- 60s across the
southern Oklahoma region today and tomorrow
The air across the region remains dense today at the surface but higher
trajectories move on stronger winds following in general the surface flow
pattern. Conditions for release will be
very good over the forecast period, however today entrainment and long distance travel
will be hampered by the overall light winds at the surface and dense air
causing entrained pollen to move across the landscape where impaction is a
greater factor. Tomorrow afternoon southwest winds return and the trajectories will carry entrained pollen into northeast Oklahoma.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat Today and Severe Threat Tomorrow. Today and tomorrow conditions
will be very good with high temperature in the 60 degree range and sunny
skies. Pollen release should be ongoing,
however winds will be light and variable at low levels. The potential for pollen being released and entrained
in the atmosphere will be good both days.
Once entrained the dense air at the ground may hamper long distance
travel today. This afternoon and overnight
the trajectories will move towards the south on northerly winds. Tomorrow and then tomorrow night, southerly
winds will take over and the overall flow will once again be from the
southwest. The trajectories show little
buoyancy and thus entrained pollen will be moving in the lower atmosphere where
impaction is common. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.