Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Saturday,
January 17 and Sunday, January 18 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions
will be warm with highs expected in the 60 degree and low 70 degree range under
sunny skies. Tomorrow a slight cooling
will occur with most areas reaching the 60s.
Winds will initially begin from the southwest at light to moderate
conditions then switch coming from the north and northwest at light to moderate
levels. Overnight skies will be mostly
clear with moderate winds from the north and temperatures in the low 30s across
the Edwards Plateau and northward into southern Oklahoma. The edge communities along the I-35 corridor
will only get down into the lower 40 degree range. Tomorrow sunny to mostly sunny conditions
will occur. Temperatures will cool
slightly, remaining only in the 60s throughout the area. Winds will remain from the northeast to northwest
across the central portion of the forecast area. On the Edwards Plateau to the west and to the
north in Oklahoma a southwesterly breeze will begin to build. Tomorrow night will be mostly clear with
temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s across most of the Edwards Plateau,
northward into southern Oklahoma. The
edge communities will only move down into the lower 40s. Winds across the entire forecast area will be
from the south at light levels.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will move initially from the south and southwest towards
the north and northwest on light to moderate conditions. Then overnight a northerly wind will take
over pushing most of the trajectories back southward on light to moderate wind
flow. Tomorrow the northerly track will
be turned once again back so a south to north flow overnight. Conditions will be warm today and slightly
cooler tomorrow with high temperatures in the lower 70s across the southern
plateau and into the southern edge communities.
Tomorrow high temperatures will be in the 60s. The air across the region remains dense at
the surface but higher the trajectories move on stronger winds following in
general the surface flow. Conditions for
release will be very good over the forecast period, however entrainment and
long distance travel will be hampered by the overall light winds at the
surface.
OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat today and Severe threat Today and
Tomorrow. Today conditions will be very good with high temperature in the 60
degree range and sunny skies. Tomorrow
temperatures will warm to the mid-70s under sunny skies. Pollen release should be ongoing, however
winds will be light and variable at low levels. The potential for pollen being released and entrained
in the atmosphere will be good both days.
However, once entrained the dense air at the ground may hamper long
distance travel. Today the winds will move
towards the north and northeast as most areas will see a southwest wind at
light levels. Overnight the trajectories
will move towards the south on northerly winds.
Tomorrow, southerly winds will eventually take over and tomorrow night
the overall flow will once again be from the southwest. The trajectories show little buoyancy and
thus entrained pollen will be moving in the lower atmosphere where impaction is
common.
Trajectory
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Junction, TX
Sonora, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]