Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Monday, January 19 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will be remain warm with highs expected in
the low 70 degree range in most areas.
Northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will be in the mid to upper
60s. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny
and winds will be light from the southwest.
In the southernmost areas of the Edwards Plateau winds will be more from
the west. The clear skies will extend
overnight into tomorrow. Tonight the
lows will be in the upper 30s in the
coldest areas across the Edwards Plateau and north of the Dallas/Ft. Worth
metro area. In the surrounding communities lows will bottom out in the 40s. Tomorrow sunny to mostly sunny skies will
remain, except to the north where partly cloudy conditions will build during
the day and overnight. Over the Edwards
Plateau high temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s once again. There will be slight cooling around the edge
with southwestern areas reaching the mid to upper 60s and to the north in
Dallas/Ft. Worth where highs will be in the mid 60’s cooling northward with central
Oklahoma only in the mid-50s. Winds to
the north will be turning coming from the north. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will
continue to build southward. To the
north lows will dip towards the freezing mark.
Across the Edwards Plateau lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, and the
surrounding areas will be in the mid- to upper 40s. Overall conditions will be good for pollen
dissemination and dispersal.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move initially from the northeast
towards the southwest on light wind conditions today and tonight. Tomorrow a more northerly wind will continue
to push southward with slight cooling in terms of the temperatures. The change to winds coming from the north
will continue overnight and into tomorrow.
Today and tonight winds will be light and variable showing restricted overall
movement across southern Oklahoma and northernmost Texas. Temperatures overall will remain mild to warm
with high temperatures in the mid-60s today and then cooling into the low 60s
and upper 50s tomorrow. Across the
region the air at the ground surface remain dense with little buoyancy over the
forecast period. Above the surface,
conditions will differ with stronger winds that will mix the atmosphere. The light winds will result in the overall
flow being light and not moving significant distances.
OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat Today and Severe Threat Tomorrow.
Today conditions will be very good with high temperature in the 60s today under
sunny skies. Tomorrow temperatures will
cool slightly to the lower 60s to upper 50s, but remaining under sunny skies. Pollen release should be continuing, however
winds will remain light and variable at low levels. The potential for pollen being released and
entrained in the atmosphere will be good both days. Once entrained the dense air at the ground
may hamper long distance travel. Today
the winds will move from the north and northeast moving towards the south and
southeast but at light levels. Tomorrow,
northerly winds will eventually build and tomorrow night the overall flow will be
from the north at stronger levels. The
trajectories show little buoyancy and thus entrained pollen will be moving in
the lower atmosphere where impaction is common and will have the greatest
effect upon allergy sufferers. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.