Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Tuesday,
January 20 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be remain unseasonably
warm with highs expected in the 70s with the upper 70s in the edge communities. Northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will be
in the mid to upper 60s. Skies will be
sunny to mostly sunny and winds will be light from the northeast at 10 to 15
miles per hour. Across the Edwards
Plateau sunny conditions will prevail with winds initially from the west and
southwest at light conditions then turning in the late afternoon to an overall
northeasterly pattern. Tonight partly
cloudy skies will build with the edge communities experiencing patchy fog. Low temperatures will be in the 40s with a
dominant northeasterly wind at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow will see partly cloudy to mostly
cloudy conditions. High Temperatures
will be in the mid 50 degree range in southern Oklahoma and in the low to mid
60s further south with the warmest areas being in the edge communities. A chance of rain will begin to build to the
south and east with patch fog and then an increasing chance of showers
overnight. Cloudy skies will remain
overnight with rain expected across the area.
In southern Oklahoma temperatures will be in the mid to low thirties and
thus rain and snow are forecast. To the
south in Texas low temperatures are expected in the low 40s with a 80-90%
chance of precipitation overnight. Winds
will remain from the northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move initially from the northeast
towards the southwest on light wind conditions then turn as southwesterly winds
blow back towards the northeast. Tonight and tomorrow as well as tomorrow night
winds will be from the northeast moving winds towards the southwest. Conditions will be very good today with
temperatures in the mid-60s under sunny skies.
Tonight, lows will remain above freezing with readings in the mid-30s. Winds will be from the northeast becoming
light and variable overnight. Tomorrow
changes begin with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the mid-50s. Winds will continue from the northeast at 10
miles per hour. Further south, the
southwest corner of the Edwards Plateau will see the encroachment of a rain
system. By tomorrow night, the region
from central Oklahoma southward to the southern Edwards Plateau area will have
precipitation with low temperatures in the middle 30s and winds from the
northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and High threat Tomorrow. Today
conditions will be very good with high temperature in the 60s under sunny
skies. Tomorrow temperatures will cool
to the middle 50s, with partly cloudy skies.
Pollen release should be continuing, however winds will remain at lower levels
with a buoyant atmosphere. The
potential for pollen being released and entrained in the atmosphere will be
good both days. Once entrained, the pollen
will then travel, most likely to the southwest.
The current trajectory shows it move southwest then turns towards the
northeast. Trajectories later today are
expected to show the more southwesterly movement on the predicted northeasterly
winds that will continue tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.