Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Tuesday, January 20 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will be remain unseasonably warm with highs
expected in the 70s with the upper 70s in the edge communities. Northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will be
in the mid to upper 60s. Skies will be
sunny to mostly sunny and winds will be light from the northeast at 10 to 15
miles per hour. Across the Edwards
Plateau sunny conditions will prevail with winds initially from the west and
southwest at light conditions then turning in the late afternoon to an overall
northeasterly pattern. Tonight partly
cloudy skies will build with the edge communities experiencing patchy fog. Low temperatures will be in the 40s with a
dominant northeasterly wind at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow will see partly cloudy to mostly
cloudy conditions. High Temperatures
will be in the mid 50 degree range in southern Oklahoma and in the low to mid
60s further south with the warmest areas being in the edge communities. A chance of rain will begin to build to the
south and east with patch fog and then an increasing chance of showers
overnight. Cloudy skies will remain
overnight with rain expected across the area.
In southern Oklahoma temperatures will be in the mid to low thirties and
thus rain and snow are forecast. To the
south in Texas low temperatures are expected in the low 40s with a 80-90%
chance of precipitation overnight. Winds
will remain from the northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas (shown below) will be mixed today with areas to
the west continuing to move southward on an overall north to northeasterly
flow. The eastern communities will move
more towards the north and northeast. Tonight, the northeasterly flow will
establish itself influencing wind direction this evening, into tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The winds will push
towards the southwest out of the north and northeast once established. Tonight partly cloudy skies and warm
conditions will result in patchy fog in many areas. Tomorrow the northeasterly flow continues
with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.
To the southwest on the Edwards Plateau a 20% chance of showers will
begin to build. High temperatures will
be in the mid to low 60s in the edge communities and in the 50s elsewhere. Tomorrow night rain is expected across the
region. Across Texas, tomorrow night
lows will be in the lower 40s but the southernmost areas may only drop into the
OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat today and Severe threat Tomorrow.
Today conditions will be very good with high temperature in the 60 to 70 degree
range with sunny skies. Tomorrow temperatures
will cool slightly to the mid-60s in the warmest areas and into the mid-50s
across the rest of central Texas. Tomorrow
clouds will begin to build to the south and southwest with a 20% chance of
precipitation. Tomorrow night the entire
region will come under the influence of stormy conditions and will have a
significant chance of precipitation.
Tomorrow night will be cloudy with lows in the 40’s and low 50’s. Pollen release will continue, however winds
will remain light and variable then become more established from the northeast. The potential for pollen being released and
entrained in the atmosphere will be good both days. Once entrained the air will be buoyant and
should be capable of travelling long distances.
Most of the trajectories show that they do roughly remain within the
borders of Texas. Once the north to
northeasterly winds establish themselves expect the winds and wind
characteristics to change.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: email@example.com