Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Wednesday,
January 21 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions deteriorate
towards rain over the forecast period.
Skies this morning will be mostly cloudy with the Edwards Plateau and
surrounding communities beginning to have a significant chance of showers. Today, temperatures will be in the 50s to low
60s, with the edge communities warmer than on the Plateau itself. The cloudy conditions and temperatures in the
50s will extend northward into southern and central Oklahoma. Winds over the entire forecast period, today
through tomorrow night, will be from the north at the surface at moderate
conditions. Tonight there will be a
nearly 100% chance of rain across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s
over most of the area. However to the
north temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s and there is a chance that
some of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. Tomorrow the moisture will continue with a
high probability of continued precipitation.
High temperatures will only be in the 40s across the region with the
warmest locations just crossing the 50 degree mark. Winds will continue to be from the northeast and
tomorrow they will be stronger than tonight or tomorrow night. Many areas will experience winds in the 15 to
20 miles an hour. Tomorrow night
conditions begin to improve with the chance of rain beginning to diminish. Temperatures will be in the 30s in most areas
but not below freezing. The chance of
rain will be in the 30% to 40% range in most places. Southern Oklahoma and
northern most Texas will see temperatures in the low 30s with a chance of snow
mixed in with lingering showers.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will be mixed with most areas being
affected at higher levels of the atmosphere moving in different directions than
conditions on the ground. Cold air is
moving in from the northeast at ground level and then being caught in buoyant conditions
that causes lift in elevation. If the
atmosphere was dry this would be good conditions for entrainment and travel.
However combined with the significant chance of showers the overall effect for
the forecast period will be one where pollen is removed from the
atmosphere. It will be wet over the
forecast period, yet the amount of pollen should be relatively low, compared to
the last few days. The rain event itself
should last well into tomorrow night so expect Friday before skies will begin
to clear and the threat of pollen returns.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow. Today conditions will start good with high
temperature in the 50s under partly cloudy skies. This afternoon and tonight the chance of rain
and potential snow enters the area.
Temperatures will be in the mid to low 30s. Tomorrow temperatures will only build to the
mid- to low 40s, with cloudy skies. The
chance of rain tonight and tomorrow will be in the 70% range. Any pollen that is released by the trees will
be washed out of the atmosphere with the rain.
Because of the precipitation there is little chance that significant
pollen will occur in the atmosphere over the forecast period
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.