Exposure Risk Moderate to Low Moderate to Low Moderate to Low
Date Issued: 21 January, 2015
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Wednesday,
January 21 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions deteriorate
towards rain over the forecast period.
Skies this morning will be mostly cloudy with the Edwards Plateau and
surrounding communities beginning to have a significant chance of showers. Today, temperatures will be in the 50s to low
60s, with the edge communities warmer than on the Plateau itself. The cloudy conditions and temperatures in the
50s will extend northward into southern and central Oklahoma. Winds over the entire forecast period, today
through tomorrow night, will be from the north at the surface at moderate
conditions. Tonight there will be a
nearly 100% chance of rain across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s
over most of the area. However to the
north temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s and there is a chance that
some of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. Tomorrow the moisture will continue with a
high probability of continued precipitation.
High temperatures will only be in the 40s across the region with the
warmest locations just crossing the 50 degree mark. Winds will continue to be from the northeast and
tomorrow they will be stronger than tonight or tomorrow night. Many areas will experience winds in the 15 to
20 miles an hour. Tomorrow night
conditions begin to improve with the chance of rain beginning to diminish. Temperatures will be in the 30s in most areas
but not below freezing. The chance of
rain will be in the 30% to 40% range in most places. Southern Oklahoma and
northern most Texas will see temperatures in the low 30s with a chance of snow
mixed in with lingering showers.
Air mass trajectories over Texas will
be mixed with the winds at higher levels moving in different directions than
conditions on the ground. Cold air at
the surface is moving in from the northeast and then being caught in a low
pressure system that at upper elevations will provide buoyant conditions and
lift the atmosphere in elevation. If the
atmosphere was dry this would be good conditions for entrainment and travel.
However combined with the significant chance of rainfall across the region the
overall effect for the forecast period will be one where pollen is removed from
the atmosphere. It will be wet over the
forecast period, and the amount of pollen should be relatively low, compared to
the last few days. The rain event itself
should last well into tomorrow night so expect Friday before skies will begin
to clear and the threat of pollen returns.
OUTLOOK*** Moderate Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow. Today conditions will be deteriorating towards the next two days of rainfall across the region. High temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s across the region as moisture begins to build across the Edwards Plateau. Winds at the surface will be from the northeast at light to moderate conditions. Tonight the chance of precipitation in most areas rises to 100%. Temperatures will be in the 40s in most areas. The southwestern Plateau will dip into the upper 30s as will northernmost Texas and the Oklahoma border region. Tomorrow the showers will remain across the region with high temperatures in the 40s. Tomorrow night the showers will begin to diminish and temperatures will drop to the mid to upper 30s. Pollen release will continue today but with rainfall, pollen cones that are open will see their pollen washed out of the atmosphere and off of the trees.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: email@example.com