Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Thursday, January 22 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will be rainy with the possibility of rain
throughout the forecast period. Skies
this morning will be mostly cloudy with the Edwards Plateau and surrounding
communities continuing to have significant rainfall. Overnight into this morning many areas have
received more than an inch of precipitation.
Today, temperatures will be mostly in the 40s with only the southern edge
communities making it into the low 50 degree range. The cloudy conditions and lower temperatures will
extend northward into southern and central Oklahoma where early precipitation
may fall with mixed snow showers. Winds
today and tonight will be from the northeast at moderate to strong conditions, ten
to twenty miles per hour. Tonight there
will remain a significant chance of rain across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures on the Plateau are expected to
be in the low 30s with a chance of rain or snow mixed. Tomorrow the moisture will continue but begin
to taper off as the system moves towards the east. Skies will begin to clear to the north in
southern Oklahoma with temperatures rebounding into the high 40 degree
range. Across Texas a chance of rain
will continue with the greatest probability being in the central Plateau between
Junction and Fredericksburg. High
temperatures will only be in the 40s across the region with the warmest
locations just crossing the 50 degree mark in the edge communities along the
eastern plateau. Winds will continue from
the north and northwest at moderate levels.
Tomorrow night clear to mostly clear skies will occur with temperatures
dropping into the 30s across the eastern Plateau and its surrounding
communities along the I-35 corridor. On
the Plateau and to the west temperatures will be in the upper 20’s. Winds will become light from the northwest
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will be dominated by the system moving through the
region. Rain is expected today across the areas with northern Texas and
southern Oklahoma forecast for significant amounts. Temperatures today will be in the 40s with
winds from the northeast at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight temperatures will drop into the low
30s with a chance of snow mixed in with rain.
The chance of precipitation will be about 30%. Tomorrow, winds will come down to light
levels from the northwest. Temperatures
will start to climb back, tomorrow they are expected to be in the upper
40s. Skies will be partly cloudy along
the border area, but to the north Oklahoma City is expected to be mostly
sunny. With the clear skies tomorrow
night will drop into the low 30s on light and variable breezes. Considering current rainfall combined with the
significant chance of rainfall continuing across the region over the forecast
period it is expected that most pollen will be removed from the atmosphere, and
that little pollen will be released.
Conditions will be wet over the forecast period, and the amount of
pollen should be relatively low. The
rain event itself should last through tonight in north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. Tomorrow conditions will
improve with skies clearing. However, it will be Saturday before the threat of
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow.
Today conditions will continue to be poor for pollen dispersal, entrainment and
travel with rainfall across the region.
High temperatures will remain in the 40s across the area as moisture continues
to move from west to east. Winds at the
surface will be from the northeast at moderate conditions. To the south, gusts of ~30 mile per hour are
expected in the Dallas/Ft. Worth region.
Tonight the chance of precipitation will continue but diminish. Temperatures will be in the 40s today and
tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will
drop into the low 30s. Conditions are poor for pollen release today
through tomorrow night. Looking towards
the weekend, however, conditions will improve and pollen cones are expected to
open bringing concentrations back into the atmosphere over the region.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.