Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Wednesday,January 28 – TX/OK: Across
the region today conditions will be sunny and warm. The region will be under clear skies and
sunny conditions. However, in the far
southwestern area of the Edwards Plateau sunny conditions will begin the day
but partly cloudy conditions will build during the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm today with the
central portion of the forecast areas in the upper 70s to low 80s. Even to the north in the border area to
central Oklahoma temperatures will be in the mid- 70s. Winds across the Edwards Plateau will
initially be from the southwest and the overall flow direction will be
maintained through the day. Winds will
be building with moderate conditions but with gusty winds in the Dallas/Ft.
Worth regional area. Overnight
conditions will cool into the mid to upper 40s.
North Texas will only drop into the lower 50s. Winds from the south will remain overnight at
light to moderate levels. Tomorrow skies
will be mostly sunny to the north and in the edge communities surrounding the
Edwards Plateau. Conditions will be
cooling. Partly cloudy conditions will
build over the plateau keeping the overall temperatures in the 60s. The edge communities will warm into the low
to mid- 70s, but to the north high temperatures will only get into the upper
50s. The cooling temperatures will come
from an overall shift in the wind pattern to a north to northwest flow moving
over the area. Winds will be light to
moderate as the shift occurs. By
tomorrow evening mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions will form over the
region. Low temperatures will drop into
the 40 degree range, 30 degree range in north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate from the north to
northeast overnight.
Trajectory weather:
Air mass trajectories over the
Arbuckle Mountains will be picking up speed with conditions at moderate wind
levels as the overall flow over the region shifts from a southerly flow to a
northerly flow. Temperatures will be warm
with many areas reaching the upper 70 degree mark. As cooler air moves in from the north
overnight gusty conditions will be increasing turning the winds from an overall
southerly flow to one from the north. The
northerly direction will remain for tomorrow night. Northerly winds will cool tomorrow’s high
temperatures by about 10 degrees. Conditions
are very good for pollen release across the region today and tomorrow. In addition the air will be mixed especially
with the shift in wind direction occurring overnight. Dispersal and long distance travel is
expected today and tomorrow. With the
southerly winds the most affected areas will be north of the pollinating trees
today, but will turn overnight and head more to the south beginning in the
morning. OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and Severe
threat Tomorrow. Today and tomorrow conditions
will continue to be very good for pollen dispersal. Entrainment and downwind travel will occur,
with the winds building and changing direction overnight. High temperatures will climb in to the upper 70s
and then cool by 10 degrees tomorrow on cooler northerly winds. Winds at the
surface will be mixed and will build from the south today then switch to a
northerly flow overnight. The trajectories
move to the north today over eastern Oklahoma and the trajectories will have
significant pollen entrained within the atmosphere as it occurs. These conditions will bring significant
concentrations into the atmosphere over eastern Oklahoma at least as far as the
Tulsa region. The communities of central
to northeastern Oklahoma may see some of their highest pollen levels this
season.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.