Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Friday,
January 30 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be increasingly
cloudy anticipating a rainy night and rain into tomorrow and tomorrow
night. To the north in Oklahoma
conditions will begin with partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low
50s. To the south the Dallas/ Ft. Worth
region will be partly sunny to begin with, however the mostly cloudy and cloudy
conditions to the south across the Edwards Plateau will build in towards the
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooling
with highs today in the 50s across the area and in the mid to low 40s
overnight. Today, there will be a chance
of precipitation along the eastern edge communities and to the far western edge
of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be
from the east at moderate levels.
Tonight across the Edwards Plateau, cloudy conditions will dominate and
temperatures will drop into the mid to low 40s.
Winds will remain from the east to southeast at moderate
conditions. To the north in Oklahoma
winds will be light and variable. The
western side of the Plateau will have a 70% chance of precipitation. In other areas will be less, but building
towards tomorrow. On Saturday, cloudy
conditions will prevail with significant chances of rain across the entire area
(70% to 90%). Temperatures will be in
the 50s across Texas and the 40s in southern Oklahoma. Winds will remain from the southeast at 10 to
15 miles per hour. Tomorrow night will
almost be a duplicate of tomorrow day with cloudy skies significant chances of
rain and winds mostly from the southeast.
Temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 40s across the Plateau, low
50s in the surrounding communities and in the upper 30s to the north in
Oklahoma. The extended forecast through
the weekend calls for similar conditions.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will be influenced by the moisture in the
atmosphere. High temperatures today will
be in the 50s with a moderate wind from the east and northeast. As conditions deteriorate towards late
afternoon and evening, moisture will be moving in from the southwest and west. By tonight the chance of rain will increase
region wide. With the beginning of
showers most of the pollen should be knocked down cleansing the atmosphere. Tonight temperatures will only fall by about
10 degrees and rains will become more widespread. Tomorrow a significant chance of rain will
occur region-wide with temperatures similar to todays. Tomorrow night the rains will continue and
temperatures vary only by about 10 degrees from daytime to nighttime. Conditions will begin at good conditions for
pollen release across the region but will decline as moisture moves in.. There could be some dispersal today but with
moister conditions dispersal and long distance travel should be limited OUTLOOK: ***High Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow. Today
conditions will continue to be good for pollen dispersal. Entrainment and downwind travel will occur
today, before moisture moves in and dominates the conditions over the remaining
forecast period. High temperatures will
climb only in to the upper 50s and tomorrow.
The chance of precipitation begins to build to the southwest today, then
covers most of the entire area by tonight.
Areas on the southwestern Edwards Plateau will have a 70% chance or
precipitation tonight. Tomorrow,
conditions deteriorate and most areas have precipitation. These conditions will continue into tomorrow night
as well. The long term forecast show a
bit of a break Saturday morning but then more moisture through the weekend. Some pollen will be entrained today and thus
the High threat, but once the moisture moves in any pollen in the atmosphere
will be washed out leaving a clean slate once the storm systems move on.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org