Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
February 3 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be sunny to
the north and in north central Texas, but to the south moisture will move in to
the San Antonio area towards Austin.
Temperatures will be cool today with the areas expecting rain only in
the 40s. The northern and western
Plateau areas will be in the 50s as will the border area of north Texas and
southern Oklahoma. Winds will be from
the south at moderately strong conditions.
Austin will have a 50% chance of precipitation with San Antonio at 80%
chance. The southwestern Plateau
communities as far north as Junction have a chance of showers as well. Winds will be from the south. Tonight cloudy conditions will remain with a
lesser chance of precipitation. Low
temperatures will be in the lower 40s
and upper 30s. Across the Plateau winds
will remain moderate to strong, the rest of the region will see light winds
from the south. Tomorrow, skies will
begin with mostly cloudy conditions but will burn off to mostly sunny
conditions during the day. Temperatures
will climb into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s in the southernmost
communities. Winds will be moderate from
the south and southwest. Early there is
still a chance of a lingering shower in the Austin area but as the day
progresses skies should clear. Overnight
tomorrow, low temperatures across Texas will be in the mid- to upper 30s and
low 40s. To the north in southern
Oklahoma, there will be a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of rain and
sleet. Low temperatures will drop into
the upper 20s. Winds will have shifted
coming from the north as can be seen on the trajectory maps.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by clear sunny
skies today becoming partly cloudy tomorrow.
High temperatures today will warm into the upper 50s and winds will be
from the south at moderately strong levels.
Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures in the upper
30s. Winds will calm. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies will build in
with temperatures returning to the upper 50s and winds will pick back up to
moderately strong conditions around 20 miles per hour. Tomorrow night moisture will move in with a
20% chance of rain or sleet, with the temperatures being in the upper 20s. Conditions
for pollen release, entrainment and travel will be good. Strong winds will move entrained pollen
northward over central Oklahoma and off towards the northeast over the Tulsa
region. The overall flow pattern is
similar for Texas bringing pollen northward.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Severe threat Tomorrow. Conditions will be good for pollen
dispersal with high temperatures in the upper 50s in the border region. Entrainment and downwind travel will be
affected by cooler dense air today that will tend to flow at or near ground
level where impaction against objects takes pollen out of the airstream. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper
30 degree range. Tomorrow conditions
sill see similar highs in the mid- to upper 50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will build to moderate levels from the
south. However, tomorrow night lows will
be in the upper 20s with a 20% chance of rain or sleet. Winds will be light from the north. The trajectories will be flowing towards the
north today, however the addition of pollen from the Texas area will be
restrained because of the potential of rain showers across the southern Edwards
Plateau and in the surrounding communities.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.