Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Wednesday, February 4 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will begin with mostly cloudy skies that
will improve during the day resulting in clear skies this afternoon. Temperatures will be warming with most areas
on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding community in the low to mid 60s
and to the far west in closing in on 70 degrees. Winds will be from the west to southwest at
moderate conditions, topping out at about 15 miles per hour. To the north in the border region,
temperatures will be in the upper 50s and winds will be lighter eventually turning,
coming out of the east. Tonight the
northern areas will have a 20% chance of freezing rain or drizzle. Temperatures will be in the low 20s overnight
and winds will be strong from the north at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Further south of the Dallas/Ft. Worth region
across the Edwards Plateau, partly cloudy skies will be building into mostly
cloudy conditions. Most areas will be in
the mid to upper 30s with the San Antonio area remaining at 40 degrees. Winds will be initially from the southeast along
the southern areas of the Edwards Plateau, with the rest of the region being
influenced with northerly winds from 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tomorrow the Plateau and surrounding
communities will be mostly cloudy eventually getting to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper
40s to low 50s. Winds will be from the
north at moderate levels. To the north
in southern Oklahoma the region will be in the low 40s with sunny skies. Winds will be from the northeast at moderate
conditions. Tomorrow night mostly clear
skies will occur in and around the border area between Texas and Oklahoma. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s
with light and variable winds. Across
Texas partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will occur with temperatures in the
30s. On the plateau winds will be from
the south at moderate conditions and in the surrounding communities winds will
be light and mixed.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by mostly
cloudy skies today and tonight with a slight chance of rain overnight. Winds will start from the north then return
from the south later in the day.
Temperatures will be in the upper 50s.
Tonight the northerly winds return and the low temperatures are expected
to be in the lower 20s. There is a 20%
chance of precipitation which would come down as freezing rain. Winds overnight will be in the 15 to 20 miles
per hour range. Tomorrow sunny skies
will occur with temperatures expected in the low 40s. Winds will die down to the 10 to 15 miles per
hour range from the northeast, then tomorrow night skies will be mostly clear
with temperatures in the low 30s with winds becoming light and variable. Conditions for pollen release, entrainment and
travel will be good today with high temperatures in the upper 50s. Cold conditions tonight and temperatures in the
40s tomorrow should restrict pollination.
The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south and enter
into a very mixed zone across Texas.
Trajectories at ground level show little lift to the atmosphere,
therefore it is thought that any pollen released will probably be removed by
OUTLOOK: *** ModerateThreat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow. Conditions
will be better for pollen release and dispersal today with high temperatures in
the upper 50s in the border region.
Tomorrow temperatures will be in the upper 40s with light to moderate winds
and dense atmospheric conditions.
Entrainment and downwind travel will be affected by cold dense air today
and tomorrow that will tend to flow at or near ground level where impaction
against objects takes pollen out of the airstream. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower
20 degree range with a slight chance of freezing rain. Winds will be light from the north. The trajectories will be flowing towards the
south tomorrow on light to moderate winds from the northeast. Tomorrow night temperatures will drop into
the low 30s and winds will calm to light and variable conditions. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.