Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather:
Wednesday, February 4 – TX/OK:
Across the region today conditions will begin with mostly cloudy skies that
will improve during the day resulting in clear skies this afternoon. Temperatures will be warming with most areas
on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding community in the low to mid 60s
and to the far west in closing in on 70 degrees. Winds will be from the west to southwest at
moderate conditions, topping out at about 15 miles per hour. To the north in the border region,
temperatures will be in the upper 50s and winds will be lighter eventually turning,
coming out of the east. Tonight the
northern areas will have a 20% chance of freezing rain or drizzle. Temperatures will be in the low 20s overnight
and winds will be strong from the north at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Further south of the Dallas/Ft. Worth region
across the Edwards Plateau, partly cloudy skies will be building into mostly
cloudy conditions. Most areas will be in
the mid to upper 30s with the San Antonio area remaining at 40 degrees. Winds will be initially from the southeast along
the southern areas of the Edwards Plateau, with the rest of the region being
influenced with northerly winds from 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tomorrow the Plateau and surrounding
communities will be mostly cloudy eventually getting to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper
40s to low 50s. Winds will be from the
north at moderate levels. To the north
in southern Oklahoma the region will be in the low 40s with sunny skies. Winds will be from the northeast at moderate
conditions. Tomorrow night mostly clear
skies will occur in and around the border area between Texas and Oklahoma. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s
with light and variable winds. Across
Texas partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will occur with temperatures in the
30s. On the plateau winds will be from
the south at moderate conditions and in the surrounding communities winds will
be light and mixed.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau
will be influenced by mostly cloudy conditions this morning becoming clear
towards the afternoon then building back in overnight. High temperatures today will be in the lower
60s across the northern region and in the mid to upper 60s on the central and
southern Plateau. Winds today will begin
from the south to southwest at light to moderate conditions. Tonight clouds will build back in and
temepratures will be in the mid-to low 30s across the Plateau. The southernmost edge communities will see
temperatures remaining in the low 40 degree range. Winds will have shifted from the southwest to
the north at moderate levels. Tomorrow
the day will begin as mostly cloudy then
eventually become partly cloudy. High
temperatures are expected to only be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Winds will be at moderate levels from the
north bringing the cold air into the region.
Tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear. Temperatures will once again return to the
30s but the winds will switch once more
coming from the south but at light levels. Pollen release should occur today
and tomorrow on moderate winds but with the wind direction changes it will
swirl over central Texas. Recently we
are beginning to see increasing amounts of pollen from other spring
species. This has historically been the
signal that the Juniper pollen season is winding down.
OUTLOOK: ***
Severe Threat today and Moderate threat Tomorrow. Conditions will be good for pollen
dispersal today with the temperatures in the 60s across Texas. Winds will be from the southwest at moderate
levels. However, entrainment and downwind travel will
be affected by cold dense air today that will tend to flow at or near ground
level where impaction against surfaces occurs.
Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s to low 40 degree
range. Tomorrow conditions will remain
cold with most areas in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will build to moderate levels from the
north. Conditions for pollen release
will be good today but decreasing tomorrow with cooler conditions. The atmosphere is dense and thus we expect
entrained pollen to be removed from the airstream. The pollen record over the past week has
begun to show a number of additional spring species being recorded. This is the sign that the Juniper pollen is
beginning to end its pollination season.
For those that suffer significantly, the end of the Juniper pollen
season is just around the corner.
Trajectory
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
*******A New Diagram will be forthcoming, check back later*********
Junction, TX
Sonora, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]