Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Wednesday, December 17 – TX/OK:
Across the region today skies will be cloudy with an overall flow from the
south and east moving air northwards.
Winds will be in the 5 to 10 miles per hour range and showers are
expected. There will be a 50% chance of
precipitation developing on the Plateau with only a 20% chance to the
southwest. Temperatures across the
Edwards Plateau will be in the 50s. To
the north in Dallas and towards Oklahoma highs will be in the 40s. The chance of rain will be greater to the
north with the border area around Ardmore expecting a 70% chance of rain. Cloudy skies will remain across the region
tonight and throughout tomorrow. The
chance of rain will continue throughout the evening with mild temperatures. Lows will generally be within 10 degrees of
today’s high. Readings in the mid to
upper 40s and low 50s will be the norm overnight. Tomorrow the clouds will remain, but the
chance of rain will diminish with most areas having only a 20% chance. The communities around the edge of the
Edwards Plateau should expect fog and warming during the daytime. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 60s
with light winds from the south to southeast.
In north Texas and across southern Oklahoma similar conditions will
occur but with temperatures only reaching into the upper 40s and low 50s. Thursday night the chance of rain returns
with the region having a 50% to 60% across Texas and a 20% chance across
central and southern Oklahoma. The
preceding dominant southerly wind flow will give way to northeasterly winds,
bringing slightly cooler air into the region.
Temperatures over the Plateau will be in the 40s with the edge
communities remaining in the low 50s.
North Texas and southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s
Trajectory weather:Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma move to the
north, on south to southeasterly winds today, tonight and then curve back around to the south. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s
today and 40s tomorrow.
Tonight and tomorrow night temperatures will drop into the mid to upper
30s. Throughout the period a chance of
rain is in the forecast. Today there is
a 70% chance of showers over the region, declining to 50% tonight. Tomorrow the chance of precipitation drops to
20% throughout the day and into the evening.
OUTLOOK: *** Poor to Moderate Threat Today and
Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Poort to moderate conditions for pollen release today and
tomorrow in the Arbuckle population because the chance of rain will occur
during the forecast period. Yesterday’s
regional pollen levels along with discovery of cones shedding pollen in the
Arbuckle Mountains show that the trees are ready for dispersal. The overall conditions will be decline today with a
greater than 50% chance rain today, but during dryer periods, release,
entrainment and dispersal are possible.
Tomorrow, conditions will improve with a declining chance of
precipitation, temperatures in the 40s and light winds.
Start (s)(shown byblack star on map):
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.