Exposure Risk Low Moderate to High Low to Moderate
Date Issued: 17 December 2014
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Wednesday, December 17 – TX/OK:
Across the region today skies will be cloudy with an overall flow from the
south and east moving air northwards.
Winds will be in the 5 to 10 miles per hour range and showers are
expected. There will be a 50% chance of
precipitation developing on the Plateau with only a 20% chance to the
southwest. Temperatures across the
Edwards Plateau will be in the 50s. To
the north in Dallas and towards Oklahoma highs will be in the 30s and 40s. The chance of rain will be greater to the
north with the border area around Ardmore expecting a 70% chance of rain. Cloudy skies will remain across the region
tonight and throughout tomorrow. The
chance of rain will continue throughout the evening with mild temperatures. Lows will generally be within 10 degrees of
today’s high. Readings in the mid to
upper 40s and low 50s will be the norm overnight. Tomorrow the clouds will remain, but the
chance of rain will diminish with most areas having only a 20% chance. The communities around the edge of the
Edwards Plateau should expect fog and warming during the daytime. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 60s
with light winds from the south to southeast.
In north Texas and across southern Oklahoma similar conditions will occur
but with temperatures only reaching into the upper 40s and low 50s. Thursday night the chance of rain returns
with the region having a 50% to 60% across Texas and a 20% chance across
central and southern Oklahoma. The
preceding dominant southerly wind flow will give way to northeasterly winds,
bringing slightly cooler air into the region.
Temperatures over the Plateau will be in the 40s with the edge
communities remaining in the low 50s.
North Texas and southern Oklahoma will be in the 30s.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas move to the north and northwest, on
south to southeasterly winds today, tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s
today, tonight with warmer conditions, into the 60s, tomorrow during the
day. Throughout the forecast period
there will be rain in the forecast.
Today there is a 50% chance of showers over most of the area, but
somewhat of a lesser chance to the southwest of the region. Over the Edwards Plateau tonight the chance
of rain continues to diminish with 20% to 30% chance of rain in most
areas. To the north the chance of rain
will be between 50% and 60%. Tomorrow
the chance of rainfall tails off with only a 20% to 30% chance. Temperatures will be warmer with most areas
reaching the 60s. A more northeasterly
flow will begin and nighttime temperatures will fall into the low 50s in the
edge communities and into the 40s across the Plateau.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and
tomorrow in the Texas populations because the chance of rain will occur during
the forecast period. Yesterday’s pollen
levels show that the trees are ripening and areas of heavy pollen were
recorded. The overall conditions will be
worse with a greater than 50% chance rain, but in dryer areas release,
entrainment and dispersal are possible. Tomorrow,
conditions will remain as rain moves into the forecast for the area tomorrow
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org