Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
weather: Friday, December 19 –
TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be cloudy with a moderate flow
from the north to northeast across the region.
To the north in Oklahoma winds will be light and variable.. On the Plateau itself winds will be from the
north to northeast. Temperatures across
Texas today will grade from the mid-40s to the north, 50s across the Edwards
Plateau and into the 60s at the southern edge communities. There will be a chance of showers across the
entire region. In Oklahoma there will be
a 20% to 30% chance of rain with drizzle and foggy conditions. In north Texas the chance of rain increases
to 60% in the Dallas/Ft Worth area.
Southward along the I-35 corridor the chance of rain will climb to 70%. The Edwards Plateau will have a 40% chance to
the west, rising towards the east. By
this evening the chance of showers will have moved off to the east with skies
becoming partly cloudy in most areas.
Winds will remain light overnight and from the north to northeast. Saturday, skies will become partly cloudy
with clearing to the far west.
Temperatures will be in the 50s region wide and winds will be light from
the southeast in most areas.
Northeasterly winds will remain in the edge communities along the I-35
corridor. Saturday night partly to
mostly cloudy skies will occur and temperatures will drop into the 30s over the
Plateau and in southern Oklahoma, and be in the mid to low 40s in the edge
communities from Waco to Austin and west to San Antonio. Trajectory weather:Air mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will remain
relatively stable not moving much, but overall heading southward over northern
Texas. Temperatures will be cool with most
areas in the 40s. This morning will see
ground fog with a 20% to 30% chance of showers developing in conjunction with
the rain over the Edwards Plateau. Last
night a front dropped southward across the region bringing with the significant
chance of rain further south. Winds will
be light and variable over the entire forecast period. Saturday afternoon and evening conditions will
improve as Friday’s system moves towards the east. There will be a chance of pollen being
dispersed both days, with the greater chance of precipitation today it will be
less likely than tomorrow. The past few days have shown that the trees have
ripe cones and pollen is being entrained into the atmosphere. Overall today will have a potential for pollen
in the atmosphere but it will clear as rain develops.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat
today and Moderate
Threat Tomorrow *** moderate conditions
for pollen release today with a slight chance of rain today. Tomorrow the
Arbuckle population will see improving conditions and a slight warmup. High temperatures
will be in the mid-40s today and low 50s tomorrow. The cones on trees growing in the Arbuckle
mountain area are shedding pollen and are ready for dispersal. The overall conditions will be moderate today
depending upon whether or not it rains.
If pollen is shed the overall light winds will move entrained pollen
grains to the south over the Texas border towards the Dallas/Ft Worth region. Tomorrow
conditions will improve as the weather system moves out of the region.
Start (s)(shown byblack star on map):
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.