Exposure Risk Moderate, High Moderate, High Low, Low
Date Issued: 20 December 2014
Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Saturday
and Sunday, December 20 and 21 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies
will begin partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with morning fog. Temperatures will return to the 50’s region
wide. Across the Edwards Plateau, winds
will be from the south and southeast, but shifting to the northeast in the surrounding
communities. Winds will be light
regionally. Into the evening
temperatures will fall into the 40’s, upper 30’ to the north in southern
Oklahoma, with light winds continuing from the south. Skies will build from
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy overnight. Temperatures will be seasonally mild with
reading across the region in the 40’s.
Tomorrow mostly cloudy skies will begin to break-up with the I-35
corridor becoming mostly sunny.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 50’s with San Antonio expected to
reach into the low 60’s. Winds will be
from the southwest over the Edwards Plateau and from the south across the
remainder of the region. In areas, such as the western side of the Plateau
winds will build up to 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Tomorrow night, cloudy skies will continue to dissipate, with the
Edwards Plateau becoming mostly clear.
The edge communities to the north will remain partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the low 40s wand a
dominant southerly flow will occur across the region for the entirety of the
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will remain relatively stable not
moving much, initially heading southward over northern Texas, then turning
north on the overall southerly flow that develops into tomorrow. Temperatures will be mild with the border
area reaching 50 degrees today. This
morning will see ground fog under light and variable winds. Partly cloudy skies today will continue
overnight with low temperatures dropping into the upper 30s. Winds along the border will remain light and
variable. Tomorrow, temperatures will be
in the lower 50’s with stronger winds from the south. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will
continue with the low temperatures in the lower 40s and winds from the south at
10 miles per hour. The trajectories move
initially southward over north Texas, then turn as southerly winds develop tomorrow
morning. The strong winds will take
material north potentially impacting central Oklahoma and areas northward. Pollen dispersal is expected both days, with
the greater chance of heavy pollination, entrainment and travel on Sunday. Winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 miles
per hour moving engrained pollen northward across Oklahoma, into the Midwest. OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat
today and High Threat Tomorrow *** moderate
conditions for pollen release today with pollen ready to be dispersed but only
light and variable winds. Concentrations
may be heavy locally, but there will be less of a chance of long distance
dispersal compared to tomorrow. The
Arbuckle population will see improving conditions and a slight warmup on Sunday.
High temperatures will be around 50 today and low 50s tomorrow. The cones on trees growing in the Arbuckle
mountain area are shedding pollen. Overall
conditions will be moderate today but with pollen in the air close to the
populations. Tomorrow dispersal will occur
and the stronger winds will be able to disperse it much further. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.