Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Monday,
December 22– TX/OK: Across the region today skies began mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Temperatures will be warm, in the 60s in southern Oklahoma increasing to the 70s in most area to the south across Texas. Winds will be moderate with most areas getting to 10-15 mile per hour out of the west or northwest by this afternoon. Tonight partly cloudy conditions will prevail with mostly cloudy conditions across the Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will fall into the 40s across Texas and cool into the 30s in southern Oklahoma. There is a 20 to 40% chance of precipitation in areas of the western Edwards Plateau overnight. Winds across Texas will be mostly from the north to northeast. Tomorrow Mostly cloudy conditions will build across Texas with an increasing chance of rain from 20% to 30%. Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and winds will remain from the north at moderate conditions. The Plateau will see winds from 10 to 20 mile per hour. Tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with mostly cloudy skies giving way to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s across the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will be in the upper 30s. Winds will remain at moderate conditions across the region, from the northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over Texas will initially move to the east then become variable tomorrow with trajectories moving north from some areas of the Plateau and south in other areas. Conditions today very good for the release and entrainment of pollen. Temperatures will be warm with many areas in the 70s with light variable winds.
OUTLOOK: ****** SEVERE Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Very good conditions for pollen release today with pollen ready to be dispersed on moderate winds from the north and northwest. Concentrations may be heavy locally The Edwards Plateau population will see very good conditions with temperatures near 70 degrees and moderate winds from the north and northwest. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and then tomorrow high temperatures are expected to decrease up to 20 degrees. To the southwest, tomorrow there is an increased risk of precipitation. Overall conditions will be very good today for dispersal, entrainment and downwind travel. Tomorrow similar conditions will occur, however potential moisture to the south may interrupt long distance transport.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org