Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Tuesday,
December 23 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies start mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be cooler, in the upper 40s to lower 50s
in southern Oklahoma area as well as in most areas along the I-35 corridor to
the south in Texas. On the Edwards
Plateau, high temperatures today will only be in the upper 40s to low 50s. These changes occur with northerly winds that
will be 10 to 20 miles per hour. The
northerly winds will also bring colder conditions with
associated higher humidity and a chance of showers across the Edwards
Plateau. As the afternoon wears on and
into the evening conditions will begin to clear with partly cloudy skies and
colder temperatures moving in. Overnight
is southern Oklahoma lows will be in the mid-30s. Similar conditions will occur across Texas
with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Winds
will remain from the northwest and 10 to 15 mile per hour. Tomorrow, partly cloudy skies will remain
across Oklahoma and the border area with Texas.
High temperatures are expected to remain in the mid-40s with the
moderate northwesterly winds. To the
south partly cloudy conditions will begin to give way to partly sunny and then
mostly sunny skies. High temperatures
will be in the mid to lower 50s and the northwesterly winds will continue. Into the evening clear skies will remain and
a shift in the winds will bring a southwesterly to westerly flow over the region. Low temperatures will be in the low 30s to
the east and upper 20s over the Plateau to the west.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will be influenced by an overall flow
from the north and northwest. The flow
will occur today, tonight and tomorrow and bring cold air over the region. Today
with the movement of air from the northwest, moisture from the south has combined
to provide a 20% chance of rain in southern Oklahoma increasing in
the Dallas/Ft. Worth region. Winds will
be moderate with gusts at or above 20 miles per hour. As the day continues the chance of rain will diminish,
and temperatures will drop into the mid 30s.
The air will be moving towards the south-southeast on the dominant
northerly winds. The winds will entrain
any pollen that is ready to be dispersed; however, with a greater chance of rain
to the south as it moves in that direction, it may be cleansed from the
atmosphere. Any pollen remaining will
eventually move south-southeast across east Texas and out over the Gulf of
Mexico. In addition, damp conditions
within the trees may retard dispersal and thus a significant contribution from
southern Oklahoma is not expected.
Tonight conditions will begin to clear with continuing light to moderate
winds. Tomorrow will be only partly
cloudy across the region with northwest winds continuing. Pollen levels will return to heavy levels,
moving from north to south-southeast. Conditions
today but especially tomorrow will be increasingly good for pollen dispersal,
entrainment and travel.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat Today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** Fair conditions for pollen
release today outside of areas with rain, where pollen is ready to be dispersed
on moderate to strong winds from the north and northwest. Temperatures are only just reaching the favorable range, but with
showers to the south there may be a barrier today for pollen getting outside of
the immediate region. The Arbuckle
population will see improving conditions with precipitation diminishing into
the late afternoon and clear skies this evening. Overnight
temperatures will fall into the 30s and then clear skies and high temperatures
in the 40s tomorrow may not get into the favorable range except in isolaed areas. Low temperatures may retard pollination,
however if shed, the overall conditions tomorrow will also be very good for
dispersal, entrainment and downwind travel.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.