Exposure Risk Low today, Severe Tomorrow High today, Severe Tomorrow High today, Severe Tomorrow
Date Issued:
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Wednesday
and Thursday, December 24 and 25 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will
be clearing with temperatures warming today and tomorrow. Today, temperatures
will be in the 50s across the Edwards Plateau and Texas in general. The eastern edge communities will be in the
upper 50s whereas to the west on the Edwards Plateau conditions will be in the lower
50s. Northern Texas into southern
Oklahoma high temperatures will be cooler beginning with the upper 40’s in the
Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then declining to the mid-40s in Ardmore and low 40s in
Oklahoma City. Winds today will be from
the northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Tonight, skies will clear and temperatures will fall into the upper 20s
to low 30s. Overnight the winds will
shift, coming from the southwest at light conditions along the eastern edge of
the Edwards Plateau and at 5 to 10 miles per hour on the Plateau itself. Tomorrow, sunny skies will remain with
temperatures climbing into the low 60s across the region. Winds will continue to be from the south with
very windy conditions building during the day.
Gusts to the north in Oklahoma are expected to be upwards of 45 miles
per hour, and south over the Edwards Plateau at 15 to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions will
build back in over the region with warmer overnight conditions. Region wide the nighttime temperatures will
only drop into the low 40s over the Plateau and upper 40s along the I-35
corridor. Winds will remain moderate
from the south at 15 to 25 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau today will continue to be influenced
by the overall flow from the northwest. Areas
in northern Texas, such as the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region will struggle to
get into the upper 40s and thus pollen release is not expected to be
significant those areas. Over the
Plateau, temperatures will get into the low 50’s with slightly warmer
conditions in the edge communities along the I-35 corridor. With clearing
skies pollination is expected with entrainment and travel towards the
southeast on northwesterly winds. Overnight a front will move through providing
a change in the overall flow and wind direction. Tonight winds will shift, coming from the
southwest and start light and variable but building towards morning. Tomorrow strong southerly winds will move the
overall regional air mass from the south to the north. With the southerly flow warmer conditions
will occur and high temperatures will push to the low to mid 60s. Pollination will be favored and with the
southerly winds significant pollen concentrations will affect communities on
the Plateau as well as to the north of the tree populations. The overall flow of air will be from the south
to the north on Christmas as well as into the evening of Christmas day.
OUTLOOK: **** SEVERE Threat Today and SEVERE Threat Tomorrow ****
Winds across the region will be from the northwest at light to moderate
levels. Across the Edwards Plateau,
temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s, therefore high levels of pollen
will be moving towards southeastern Texas.
Clear skies tonight will drop
temperatures at or just below freezing with light to variable winds. Tomorrow, the overall wind pattern shifts,
coming from the south starting with moderate conditions but building to strong windy
conditions during the afternoon. Gusts
of 45+ miles per hour are expected in localized areas to the north with gusty
conditions expected across the entire Texas region. With warmer conditions, the trees are
expected to release pollen, and with the strong winds, entrainment and travel
will move pollen to the north. Today
winds will be from the northwest, and tomorrow from the south, thus entrained
pollen should be common across the entire region eventually moving into areas
of the central and north Great Plains by tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Trajectory
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Junction, TX
Sonora, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]