Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather:
Monday, December 30 – TX/OK: Across
the region today skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy. However, the Dallas/ Ft. Worth region may see
some sun breaks. Temperatures will be
cool to cold with the warmest temperatures occurring across the southern Edwards
Plateau edge communities. In those areas
today’s high may reach the mid 50’s.
Across the Edwards Plateau high temperatures will struggle to get out of
the mid- 40s to upper 30s. Winds across
the region will be from the northeast at light to moderate levels (10 to 15
miles per hour). Temperatures will be
colder to the north with the north Texas/Oklahoma border region struggling to
get to 40 degrees. To the west and south
there will be a 40% chance of frozen rain in San Angelo and 20% chance in
Sonora. Overnight those percentages
climb to greater than 40% with the chance of frozen precipitation spreading
north and east into the central Edwards Plateau area and south into the San
Antonio metro region. Low temperatures
across the region will be in the 20s on the Plateau and mid to low 30’s in the
edge communities. Winds will remain from
the northeast at moderate conditions (15 to 20 miles per hour). Tomorrow, cold conditions will remain as will
the chance of precipitation to the south.
In Southern Oklahoma temperatures will remain in the low 30s. Similarly, high temperatures on the Edwards
Plateau will also be in the low 30s and mid 30s in the surrounding
communities. The chance of frozen rain
and sleet will remain across the southern and western portions of the Edwards
Plateau, at 30%. A 20% chance will
extend east to the Austin area. Winds
will remain at moderate conditions from the northeast but with gusts of 20 to
25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night
conditions will remain cold with an increasing chance of frozen precipitation
as freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures
will remain in the 20s across the Plateau and in the low 30s in the surrounding
areas.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma today will be influenced by cool
conditions becoming cold tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Air flow today will be from the northeast at
light to moderate wind strength. Temperatures across southern Oklahoma will be
in the low 40s for the high today. Tonight mostly cloudy skies will remain and
lows are expected to be close to 20 degrees.
Tomorrow conditions will remain cold with the high expected to only
reach the low 30s. Cold conditions will
not be conducive for pollination and thus we do not expect there to be pollen
in the atmosphere. There will be a
dominant northeasterly flow, however, as the trajectories move westward they
will encounter a blocking pattern causing the flow to eventually begin to move
northward over western Texas.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat
Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with
temperatures in the low 40s today and in the 30s tomorrow. Starting tonight, winds will be from the
northeast at moderate levels. Tomorrow, cold
conditions will continue. In southern
Oklahoma high temperatures today and tomorrow will struggle to get close to
conditions that are conducive to pollen release. This cold conditions are region wide with a
chance of both freezing rain and sleet further south across central Texas. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.