Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Monday,
December 30 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be cloudy to
mostly cloudy. However, the Dallas/ Ft.
Worth region may see some sun breaks.
Temperatures will be cool to cold with the warmest temperatures occurring
across the southern Edwards Plateau edge communities. In those areas today’s high may reach the mid
50’s. Across the Edwards Plateau high
temperatures will struggle to get out of the mid- 40s to upper 30s. Winds across the region will be from the
northeast at light to moderate levels (10 to 15 miles per hour). Temperatures will be colder to the north with
the north Texas/Oklahoma border region struggling to get to 40 degrees. To the west and south there will be a 40%
chance of frozen rain in San Angelo and 20% chance in Sonora. Overnight those percentages climb to greater
than 40% with the chance of frozen precipitation spreading north and east into
the central Edwards Plateau area and south into the San Antonio metro region. Low temperatures across the region will be in
the 20s on the Plateau and mid to low 30’s in the edge communities. Winds will remain from the northeast at
moderate conditions (15 to 20 miles per hour).
Tomorrow, cold conditions will remain as will the chance of
precipitation to the south. In Southern
Oklahoma temperatures will remain in the low 30s. Similarly, high temperatures on the Edwards
Plateau will also be in the low 30s and mid 30s in the surrounding
communities. The chance of frozen rain
and sleet will remain across the southern and western portions of the Edwards
Plateau, at 30%. A 20% chance will
extend east to the Austin area. Winds
will remain at moderate conditions from the northeast but with gusts of 20 to
25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night
conditions will remain cold with an increasing chance of frozen precipitation
as freezing rain and sleet. Temperatures
will remain in the 20s across the Plateau and in the low 30s in the surrounding
areas. Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over central Texas will be influenced by cold conditions
across the region becoming colder tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Air flow today will be from the northeast at
light to moderate wind strength. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau will
be in the mid to low 40s, even the upper 30s for the high today. In the edge
communities temperatures will get into the low 50s. To the west there will be an increasing
chance of freezing rain as well as sleet.
Tonight mostly cloudy skies will remain and lows are expected to be in
the 20s across the Plateau. The edge
communities will be in the mid to upper 30s.
Across the Edwards Plateau and moving into the surrounding communities
the chance of freezing rain as well as sleet will be increasing. Winds will remain from the northeast at
moderate conditions. Tomorrow
conditions will remain cold with the high expected to only reach the 30s
throughout. The chance of freezing rain
and sleet will extend across central Texas.
Cold conditions isnot be conducive for pollination. Today there may be release in the surrounding
communities as they will reach into the 50s, however the rest of the areas to
the west will see significantly reduced amounts being released. Colder conditions tomorrow should result in
even less pollen entrained in the atmosphere.
In addition, areas with freezing rain and sleet will seal off those
cones that would open and release pollen into their surroundings. Cold conditions along with the chance of
precipitation will remain overnight tomorrow with cold conditions remaining and
the chance of sleet and freezing rain.
Moderate Threat today and Poor Threat Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for
pollen release today with cold temperatures in all of the forecast area except
the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Some pollen may be released from these areas
but should be pushed back towards the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures today will get into the low 50s
in the surrounding communities and those areas will be the warm spots. Winds will be from the northeast at light to
moderate conditions today and will travel towards the west. They will eventually move northward as they
encounter a mass of cold air over the southern Rocky Mountains. A chance of precipitation will build,
starting to the southwest today and tonight leading to increasing percentages
tomorrow and tomorrow night. With the
cold conditions at the ground much of this moisture will fall as frozen rain
and sleet making for dangerous conditions on the roads and highways. Because of the cold conditions and frozen
precipitation we expect little pollination and environmental conditions that
will remove and entrained pollen relatively quickly. For those reasons we have moderate conditions
today devolving into poor conditions tonight tomorrow, and tomorrow night.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org