Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Friday January 2 – TX/OK:
Across the region today poor weather
conditions will continue. Temperatures
across the region will get to 40 degrees in the warmest locations with 30s for
the high in the far west and north Texas to southern Oklahoma. Across the Edwards Plateau moisture will
continue with the chance of rain in most areas, frozen precipitation is still
possible in the far west. In the
surrounding communities to the east showers and thunderstorms will become more
common. Temperatures will remain in the
40s region wide with light winds from the north to northeast. Tonight skies will remain cloudy with
temperatures varying little from the cooler daytime conditions. Rain is forecast for the entire region with
the Edwards Plateau expected to have a 70% chance and the surrounding
communities north through Dallas at 90% chance of rain. Winds will remain from
the northeast at light conditions.
Tomorrow, the surrounding communities will continue to see showers and
thunderstorms as the overall system moves out of the region. The process will begin on the Edwards Plateau
and will begin to dry out. Temperatures
will bounce back into the mid-50s on the Plateau and into the 60’s in the surrounding
communities. To the north, the
Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region will get into the low 50s. Temperatures will
remain in the mid-40s toward the border region and into Oklahoma. Tomorrow, winds will switch coming from the
west at light to moderate conditions.
Tomorrow night skies will continue to clear with areas of the Plateau in
the upper 20s to low 30s. In the
surrounding communities low temperatures will drop into the low 30s. To the north in the border region with
Oklahoma low temperatures will be in the mid- to low 20s.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Oklahoma today will be influenced by cold conditions
with high temperatures today just getting into the upper 30s in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be light and variable, moving
trajectories to the south. Rain and
frozen rain is expected across the southern Oklahoma region. Tonight there will be an increasing chance of
rain for the region. Low temperatures will remain the mid- to low-30s across the
southern Oklahoma area. Tomorrow the chance of rain decreases as the area
begins to dry. Winds will increase to
moderate conditions coming from the west.
Temperatures will move upwards reaching the mid-40s in the area. As the temperature reaches into the 40s there
will be an increase in the potential for pollen release and entrainment. However, conditions have been very cold over
the past few days and usually the trees need to warm prior to resuming
significant pollen release. In addition,
tonight’s temperatures will drop to the low 20’s.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today and Low Threat
Tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow with a high
chance of precipitation over the region today and tonight. High temperatures have been in the 30s and below
freezing for the past couple of nights. Winds will remain light and variable
from the north today and tonight.
Tomorrow moderate winds from the west will take over and then tomorrow
night return to a northwesterly flow. Rain
occurs today and tonight, then begins to clears tomorrow. Tomorrow night, skies clear and cold
conditions return. The moisture and cold
temperatures are not conducive to pollen release and cold air at the ground
will keep any pollen that might become entrained near the ground surface. Tomorrows conditions will warm, but usually
after numerous days of very cold conditions it takes the trees a couple of days
to warm and begin to pollinate again.
Therefore we do not expect high pollen levels today or tomorrow. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.