Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: :
Tuesday, January 13 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be cooling
from the warmer conditions yesterday.
Cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will occur across the Edwards Plateau
and in the surrounding communities.
Temperatures will once again just get into the 40 degree range, with
areas to the far west and north only getting into the 30s. Winds will be from the north at light to moderate
conditions. Tonight temperatures will
fall into the 30s with only the areas in southern Oklahoma in the 20’s. The northern communities will have a 20%
chance of snow or sleet overnight with low temperatures in the lower 20s. Winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow conditions will deteriorate with
temperatures close to those today, but the chance of precipitation (20%) will
occur across the entire region from the Edwards Plateau through the edge
communities northward to southern Oklahoma.
Any precipitation that falls will likely be in the form of sleet and/or
freezing rain. Winds will remain light
coming from the north and the northwest on the western side of the
Plateau. Tomorrow night 20’s return to
the Edwards Plateau with low 30’s in the edge communities. Northward in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area to the
Oklahoma border lows will be in the 20s.
Winds will remain from the north at light levels.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will move from the north toward the south today, tonight,
tomorrow and tomorrow night. The atmosphere
will continue to be cold and thus the air will be dense and generally moving
from the north towards the south.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the 40s for their highs
region wide. There have been a number of
cold days stretching back, in which little pollen has been recorded. Today and tomorrow will be another set of
days in which pollination will be constrained because of the colder
temperatures. At some point sunny warm
conditions will come again, but with a cloudy sky and moist conditions we feel
that there will not be significant release of pollen from the populations over the
forecast period. The dominant north wind
will move any pollen that is entrained towards the south at a light flow. The colder atmosphere means that most of the
trajectories will be at or near the ground surface where entrained pollen often
impacts itself against natural and manmade objects further reducing the amount
of pollen spread downwind.
OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today and Tomorrow.
The tree populations continue to be exposed to prolonged cold and wet
conditions. Today conditions will remain
cold with the high temperature only in the 40 degree range and mostly cloudy
skies. Tomorrow temperatures will get to
similar temperatures but under mostly cloudy skies with a 20% chance of
precipitation. Tomorrow night, low temperatures
will be in the low 30s and winds will be light to moderate. The
potential for pollen being released and entrained in the atmosphere is poor
because of the prolonged period of low temperatures and mostly cloudy
conditions. The dense air will move to
the south. Any pollen that gets
entrained within the atmosphere will be moving at low levels where impaction
should cause a majority of it to be deposited relatively close to the source.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org