Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Wednesday,
January 14 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be cool
today and then begin to warm up tomorrow.
Across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities cloudy to
mostly cloudy conditions will occur. In
Austin to San Antonio there will be a slight chance of rain and drizzle. High temperatures will be in the 40s across
the forecast area. Winds will be light
from the north to northeast. In Southern
Oklahoma high temperatures will barely get to 40 degrees today. Winds will be light and variable. Tonight the Edwards Plateau will start the
day with cloudy and mostly cloudy skies.
Lows over the Plateau will dip into the 20s once again. The surrounding communities will be in the 30s
towards the north. North of the
Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region temperatures will return to the 20s. Winds will be from the north and northwest at
light conditions. Tomorrow the Edwards
Plateau will see warming conditions.
Partly cloudy conditions early will give way to mostly sunny and clear
conditions. For the first time in some
time, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be moderate
from 5 to 10 miles per hour. In southern
Oklahoma high temperatures will be in the lower 50s under sunny skies. Winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow night mostly clear conditions will
prevail with mostly clear skies and thus cooling. Most areas will be in the 30s from southern
Oklahoma south across portions of the northern Edwards Plateau then southward
around the edge of the Plateau. On the
Plateau especially towards the west temperature will cool into the
mid-20s. Winds will be light and
somewhat mixed although most flow will come from the north and northwest.
Air mass trajectories over southern
Oklahoma will move from the north toward the south today, tonight, tomorrow and
tomorrow night. The atmosphere will
continue to be cool and thus the air will be dense and generally moving from
the north towards the south. However
throughout the forecast winds will remain light and variable, thus the air will
not move very far from the initiation point.
Temperatures today will remain in the 40s and tomorrow will be in the
50s for the southern Oklahoma region.
There have been a number of cold days stretching back in time, in which
little pollen has been recorded. We expect that little pollen will be released
today and once the sun goes below the horizon temperatures will fall back into
the upper 20s. Tomorrow the air
temperature will rise into the 50s and pollen release is expected. Skies will be sunny and temperatures in the lower
50s with light and variable winds.
Tomorrow night will bring above freezing conditions. The dominant northerly direction of the
atmospheric flow will move any pollen that is entrained towards the south but at
light conditions. The colder atmosphere
means that most of the trajectories will be at or near the ground surface where
entrained pollen often impacts itself against natural and manmade objects
further reducing the amount of pollen spread downwind.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Moderate
conditions Tomorrow. The tree populations continue to be exposed to prolonged
cold and wet conditions. Today conditions
will remain cold with the high temperature only in the 40 degree range and
mostly cloudy skies. Tomorrow
temperatures will warm to the lower 50s under sunny skies. Pollen release should begin, however winds
will be light and variable. The potential for pollen being released and entrained
in the atmosphere will be better tomorrow
Today the dense air will move to the south. Any pollen that gets entrained within the
atmosphere will be moving at low levels where impaction should cause a majority
of it to settle relatively close to the source.
Tomorrow will have much better conditions for release and entrainment
for travel. Throughout the forecast
period winds will be very light and thus will not dominate the process of
dispersal downwind. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.