Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
January 26 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be sunny
with a warming atmosphere. The region
will be under clear skies and sunny conditions this morning. However, in the far southwestern area of the
Edwards Plateau partly cloudy conditions will build-in this afternoon. Temperatures will be warm today with the
central portion of the forecast areas in the low 70s. To the north in southern Oklahoma and to the
southwest over the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the 60s. Winds will be light over the region and from
the west. Overnight conditions will cool
into the mid to lower 40s. The western
side of the Edwards Plateau and north along the border area in southern
Oklahoma lows will fall to the mid- 30s.
Winds will once again be from the west at light conditions. Tomorrow will mostly be a repeat of today
with regional temperatures getting into the low 70s. Winds will begin to turn with the
southwestern Plateau having winds from the southwest and the other regions with
wind from the west to northwest. Winds
will remain light. Overnight partly
cloudy skies will build in over Texas and evening temperatures will be mild
with most areas in the low to mid 40’s Winds
will mostly be from the west at light levels.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will be dominated by a west to
northwesterly flow across the region.
Winds will be light from 5 to 10 miles per hour and the trajectories
move towards the east. Weather
conditions today will be nice with sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s
today climbing into the 70s tomorrow.
Tonight temperatures will drop into the upper thirties. Tomorrow the area will be sunny again and
the region will mimic today’s conditions but slightly warmer. Tomorrow conditions will again be sunny to
mostly with temperatures in the 70s.
Winds will continue from the west at light levels. The air will remain dense and the
trajectories show movement along the ground.
Impaction of pollen and removal from the air stream will be the primary
effect downstream. Tomorrow night mostly
clear skies will extend across the area with lows in the 40s. Winds will remain with a generally westerly
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and Severe
threat Tomorrow. Today conditions will be very
good for pollen dispersal. Entrainment
and downwind travel will occur but the winds will be light and the air remains
dense so it will be moving near the ground surface. High temperatures will climb in to the 60s
today and then the 70s tomorrow. Winds at the surface will be from the north,
northwest at light levels. The
trajectories move mostly to the east.
The atmosphere is heavy and thus the trajectories will travel at ground
surface where anything entrained within the atmosphere will be open for
impaction on surfaces and removal from the air stream. As conditions improve pollen cones are expected
to open bringing higher and eventually significant concentrations back into the
atmosphere over the region. However,
with the light winds the greatest pollen levels will occur close to where there
are trees. Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.