Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Wednesday,
January 28 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be sunny and
warm. The region will be under clear
skies and sunny conditions. However, in
the far southwestern area of the Edwards Plateau sunny conditions will begin
the day but partly cloudy conditions will build during the afternoon. Temperatures will be warm today with the
central portion of the forecast areas in the upper 70s to low 80s. Even to the north in the border area to
central Oklahoma temperatures will be in the mid- 70s. Winds across the Edwards Plateau will
initially be from the southwest and the overall flow direction will be
maintained through the day. Winds will
be building with moderate conditions but with gusty winds in the Dallas/Ft.
Worth regional area. Overnight
conditions will cool into the mid to upper 40s.
North Texas will only drop into the lower 50s. Winds from the south will remain overnight at
light to moderate levels. Tomorrow skies
will be mostly sunny to the north and in the edge communities surrounding the
Edwards Plateau. Conditions will be
cooling. Partly cloudy conditions will
build over the plateau keeping the overall temperatures in the 60s. The edge communities will warm into the low
to mid- 70s, but to the north high temperatures will only get into the upper
50s. The cooling temperatures will come
from an overall shift in the wind pattern to a north to northwest flow moving
over the area. Winds will be light to
moderate as the shift occurs. By
tomorrow evening mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions will form over the
region. Low temperatures will drop into
the 40 degree range, 30 degree range in north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate from the north to
northeast overnight. Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over Texas will be picking up speed with conditions at
moderate wind levels as the overall flow over the region shifts. Temperatures will be warm with many areas
reaching the 80 degree mark today. As
cooler air moves in from the north overnight gusty conditions will be increasing
starting in the north and on the western side of the Edwards Plateau. The overall flow from the south and southwest
will maintain itself going into the evening hours and then by tomorrow the dominate
wind direction will be from the north.
The northerly direction will remain for tomorrow night. The northerly winds will cool tomorrow’s high
temperatures by about 10 degrees. At the
upper levels, 500 m above the surface, winds will be from the southwest heading
towards the northeast today. Conditions
are very good for pollen release across the region today and tomorrow.
In additions the air is buoyant and especially with the shift in wind
direction occurring overnight. Dispersal
and long distance travel is expected today and tomorrow. With the southerly winds the most affected
areas will be northeast of the pollinating trees today, but will turn overnight
and head more to the south tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today and Severe
threat Tomorrow. Today and tomorrow conditions
will continue to be very good for pollen dispersal. Entrainment and downwind travel will occur,
with the winds building and changing direction over the forecast period. High temperatures will climb in to the upper 70s
to low 80s today and then cool by 10 degrees tomorrow. Winds at the surface
will start somewhat mixed at light levels, but will build from the southwest
then switch to a northerly flow overnight.
The trajectories move to the northeast today and the trajectories will have
significant pollen entrained within the atmosphere as it occurs. These conditions will bring significant
concentrations into the atmosphere over the region and especially towards the
northeast. The communities of central to
northeastern Texas, as well as southestern Oklahoma will see some of their
highest pollen levels this season.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: email@example.com