Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Friday,
January 30 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be increasingly
cloudy anticipating a rainy night and rain into tomorrow and tomorrow night. To the north in Oklahoma conditions will
begin with partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 50s. To the south the Dallas/ Ft. Worth region
will be partly sunny to begin with, however the mostly cloudy and cloudy
conditions to the south across the Edwards Plateau will build in towards the
afternoon. Temperatures will be cooling
with highs today in the 50s across the area and in the mid to low 40s
overnight. Today, there will be a chance
of precipitation along the eastern edge communities and to the far western edge
of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be
from the east at moderate levels.
Tonight across the Edwards Plateau, cloudy conditions will dominate and
temperatures will drop into the mid to low 40s.
Winds will remain from the east to southeast at moderate
conditions. To the north in Oklahoma
winds will be light and variable. The
western side of the Plateau will have a 70% chance of precipitation. In other areas will be less, but building
towards tomorrow. On Saturday, cloudy
conditions will prevail with significant chances of rain across the entire area
(70% to 90%). Temperatures will be in the
50s across Texas and the 40s in southern Oklahoma. Winds will remain from the southeast at 10 to
15 miles per hour. Tomorrow night will
almost be a duplicate of tomorrow day with cloudy skies significant chances of
rain and winds mostly from the southeast.
Temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 40s across the Plateau, low
50s in the surrounding communities and in the upper 30s to the north in
Oklahoma. The extended forecast through
the weekend calls for similar conditions.
Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories over the Arbuckle
Mountains will be influenced by the moisture in the atmosphere. High temperatures today will be in the low 50s
with a moderate wind from the east at 10 miles per hour. As conditions deteriorate towards late
afternoon and evening, Cloudy skies will bring moisture in from the east. By tonight the chance of rain will increase
region wide. With the beginning of
showers most of the pollen should be knocked down cleansing the
atmosphere. Tonight temperatures will
only fall a little more than 10 degrees and rains will become more widespread
to the north as well as over the Edwards Plateau in central Texas. Tomorrow a significant chance of rain will
occur region-wide with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow night the rains will continue and
temperatures vary only by about 10 degrees from daytime to nighttime. Conditions will begin at good conditions for
pollen release today across the region but will decline as moisture moves in.. There could be some dispersal today but with
moister conditions dispersal and long distance travel should be limited.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and Low threat Tomorrow. Conditions
will be good for pollen dispersal.
Entrainment and downwind travel will occur, with the winds predominately
from the east then changing, coming from the southeast over the forecast
period. High temperatures will climb in
to the lower 50s today and then cool tomorrow into the 40s. Winds at the
surface will start somewhat mixed at light levels, but will build from the east
and southeast overnight. The trajectories
move to the west northwest, then hook back northward along the Texas/New Mexico
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.