Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Regional weather: Tuesday,
February 3 – TX/OK: Across the region today conditions will be cloudy to
mostly cloudy, and to the south moisture will move in to the San Antonio area
towards Austin. Temperatures will be
cool today with the areas expecting rain only in the 40s. The northern and western Plateau areas will
be in the 50s as will the border area of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma. Winds will be from the south
at moderately strong conditions. Austin
will have a 50% chance of precipitation with San Antonio at 80% chance. The southwestern Plateau communities as far
north as Junction have a chance of showers as well. Winds will be from the south. Tonight cloudy conditions will remain with a
lesser chance of precipitation. Low
temperatures will be in the lower 40s
and upper 30s. Across the Plateau winds
will remain moderate to strong, the rest of the region will see light winds
from the south. Tomorrow, skies will
begin with mostly cloudy conditions but will burn off to mostly sunny
conditions during the day. Temperatures
will climb into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s in the southernmost communities. Winds will be moderate from the south and
southwest. Early there is still a chance
of a lingering shower in the Austin area but as the day progresses skies should
clear. Overnight tomorrow, low
temperatures across Texas will be in the mid- to upper 30s and low 40s. To the north in southern Oklahoma, there will
be a 20% chance of precipitation in the form of rain and sleet. Low temperatures will drop into the upper
20s. Winds will have shifted coming from
the north as can be seen on the trajectory maps.
Trajectory weather:
Air mass trajectories over the Edwards
Plateau will be influenced by cloudy conditions and a significant chance of
precipitation moving in from the south into the edge communities and southern
Edwards Plateau. High temperatures today
will only warm into the 40s across the southern Plateau region and towards the
north and far west into the lower 50s. Winds
will be from the south at moderate levels today shifting to a southwesterly
flow tomorrow. Tonight skies will be
mostly cloudy as the moisture begins to leave the area. Temperatures will be in
the upper 30s to low 40s overnight.
Tomorrow mostly cloudy conditions will begin the day, but sunny skies
will build and daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low
60s. winds will be moderate from the
south and southwest. Tomorrow night skies
will be clearing and the overnight lows will drop back into the 30 degree
range. Winds will shift coming from the
north at light levels. Conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel
will be poor today with cold conditions and the chance of moisture. If there is pollen release, moderate winds
will move entrained pollen northward toward central Oklahoma and off towards
the northeast over the Tulsa region. The
overall flow pattern is similar as that in southern Oklahoma, however the
greater chance of moisture should dampen the absolute amount of pollen found in
the atmosphere.
OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat
today and Severe threat Tomorrow.
Conditions will be marginal for pollen dispersal with rain forecast across the
southern Edwards Plateau and high temperatures struggling to get into the 50s
in the border region. Entrainment and
downwind travel will be affected by cooler dense air today that will tend to
flow at or near ground level where impaction occurs. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper
30s to low 40 degree range. Tomorrow conditions will build the high
temperatures into the 50s and mid to low 60s under cloudy skies to begin with
but that will clear towards the afternoon.
Winds will build to moderate levels from the southwest. Conditions for pollen release will be
increasing and thus severe conditions area expected. Tomorrow night lows will
be seasonal in the upper 30s and low 40s. Winds will be light to moderate from the north.
Trajectory
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Junction, TX
Sonora, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: [email protected]