Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
December 22 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies began mostly cloudy
becoming partly cloudy. Temperatures will
be warm, in the 60s in southern Oklahoma increasing to the 70s in most area to
the south across Texas. Winds will be
moderate with most areas getting to 10-15 mile per hour out of the west or
northwest by this afternoon. Tonight
partly cloudy conditions will prevail with mostly cloudy conditions across the
Edwards Plateau. Low temperatures will
fall into the 40s across Texas and cool into the 30s in southern Oklahoma. There is a 20 to 40% chance of precipitation
in areas of the western Edwards Plateau overnight. Winds across Texas will be mostly from the
north to northeast. Tomorrow Mostly
cloudy conditions will build across Texas with an increasing chance of rain
from 20% to 30%. Temperatures will fall
into the upper 50s and winds will remain from the north at moderate conditions. The Plateau will see winds from 10 to 20 mile
per hour. Tomorrow night skies will
begin to clear with mostly cloudy skies giving way to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid
30s across the Edwards Plateau. In the
surrounding communities temperatures will be in the upper 30s. Winds will remain at moderate conditions
across the region, from the northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over southern Oklahoma will move to the southeast initially
then start heading due south towards the Gulf of Mexico. However, at the upper elevations the winds
will be caught up in larger scale processes and will move independent of the
winds nearer the ground. Skies will be
cloudy today with temperatures into the 60s.
Winds will be from the northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight lows will fall into the upper 30s
with light and variable winds. Tomorrow
will see an overall cooling of about 10 degrees, and winds will remain from the
northwest pushing the air masses to the south, southeast. With the warm up today the chance for pollen
release and entrainment will be very good.
Trajectories suggest that the winds will push and entrained pollen
towards the southeast initially then more southward towards the Gulf of Mexico.
Tomorrow the overall regional southerly wind will remain moving the
trajectories southward on moderate north to northwesterly winds
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat Today and High Threat Tomorrow *** Good
conditions for pollen release today with pollen ready to be dispersed on
moderate winds from the north and northwest.
Concentrations may be heavy locally.
The Arbuckle population will see good conditions and temperatures near
60 degrees. Overnight temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and then
tomorrow high temperatures are expected to decrease by about 10 degrees. To the south, tomorrow there is an increased
risk of precipitation. Overall
conditions will be very good today for dispersal, entrainment and downwind
travel. Tomorrow similar conditions will
occur, however potential moisture to the south may interrupt long distance
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.