Exposure Risk Low Today, High Tomorrow LowToday, High Tomorrow Low Today, Low Tomorrow
Date Issued: 24 December 2014
Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
weather: Wednesday and Thursday,
December 24 and 25 – TX/OK: Across the region today skies will be
clearing with temperatures warming today and tomorrow. Today, temperatures will
be in the 50s across the Edwards Plateau and Texas in general. The eastern edge communities will be in the
upper 50s whereas to the west on the Edwards Plateau conditions will be in the
lower 50s. Northern Texas into southern
Oklahoma high temperatures will be cooler beginning with the upper 40’s in the
Dallas/Ft. Worth area, then declining to the mid-40s in Ardmore and low 40s in
Oklahoma City. Winds today will be from
the northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour.
Tonight, skies will clear and temperatures will fall into the upper 20s
to low 30s. Overnight the winds will
shift, coming from the southwest at light conditions along the eastern edge of
the Edwards Plateau and at 5 to 10 miles per hour on the Plateau itself. Tomorrow, sunny skies will remain with
temperatures climbing into the low 60s across the region. Winds will continue to be from the south with
very windy conditions building during the day.
Gusts to the north in Oklahoma are expected to be upwards of 45 miles
per hour, and south over the Edwards Plateau at 15 to 25 miles per hour. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions will
build back in over the region with warmer overnight conditions. Region wide the nighttime temperatures will
only drop into the low 40s over the Plateau and upper 40s along the I-35
corridor. Winds will remain moderate
from the south at 15 to 25 miles per hour.
Air mass trajectories over southern
Oklahoma today will continue to be influenced by the overall flow from the
northwest. Areas in southern Oklahoma
will struggle to get into the upper 40s and thus pollen release is not expected
to be significant. Overnight a front will move through providing a change in
the overall flow and wind direction.
Tonight winds will be light and variable, tomorrow strong southerly
winds will move the overall regional air mass from the south to the north. With the southerly flow warmer conditions
will occur and high temperatures will rebound by about 20 degrees with southern
Oklahoma returning to the mid-60s.
Pollination will be favored and with the southerly winds significant
pollen concentrations should effect communities to the north of the tree
populations. The overall flow of air
will be from the south to the north on Christmas as well as into the evening of
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and SEVERE Threat
Tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today with cold conditions and
high temperatures only in the mid-40s.
Winds across the southern Oklahoma area will be from the northwest at
light to moderate levels. Clear skies
tonight will drop temperatures at or just below freezing with light to variable
winds. Tomorrow, the overall wind patter
shifts, coming from the south with moderate to strong conditions. Gusts of 45+ miles per hour are expected in
localized areas. With warmer conditions,
the trees are expected to release pollen, and with the strong winds,
entrainment and travel will move pollen to the north. The areas north of the Arbuckle Mountains
will not only be impacted by the southern Oklahoma population but will be the
primary travel path of entrained pollen from the larger Texas population.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.