Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas.
Friday, December 26 – TX/OK: Across
the region today skies will start as mostly cloudy to partly cloudy, but later clearing
across the Edwards Plateau. In the
communities surrounding the Plateau mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions
will remain. In the Dallas/Ft. Worth
region north into Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of precipitation. This morning the areas surrounding the
Edwards Plateau may experience patchy drizzle.
Temperatures across the region will be in the mid- to upper 60s on winds
from the south at moderate levels (10 to 15 mph). In northern Texas and
Southern Oklahoma, temperatures will be cooler, in the mid-50s to the north and
low 60s in the Texas/Oklahoma border region.
Tonight, across the region winds begin to shift from today’s southerly
flow to a northwesterly and then northerly flow. With the change in winds, colder conditions
move south across the region. Tonight
there will be an increasing chance of showers,
with the greatest potential being in the north but only at ~40% chance
of precipitation. Temperatures will be
in the 40s and 50s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau lows will drop into the low
40s to mid-30s. Tomorrow, cloudy
conditions will remain with a chance of showers and occasional
thunderstorms. High temperatures will
reach the upper 50’s in the edge communities, but on the Edwards Plateau and
across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma high temperatures will only be in
the 40s. Winds will be from the north at
moderate conditions ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. The edge communities with their canyons will
be areas with gusty conditions. Tomorrow
night mostly cloudy conditions will remain across the Edwards Plateau region
with low temperatures in the 30s in most areas.
However, to the north and the far west expect lows into the mid- to
Trajectory weather: Air
mass trajectories over the Edwards Plateau today will continue to be influenced
by the overall flow from the south and relatively warm conditions. Temperatures across the Plateau region will
be in the upper 60s with the western communities toying with the 70 degree
mark. Areas in northern Texas, such as the
Dallas/Ft. Worth metro region reach into the mid-60s but there will be a 20%
chance of precipitation under cloudy skies.
The edge communities this morning may experience patchy drizzle in
areas. Tonight winds will begin to shift
to a northerly flow bringing cooler conditions across the region. The dominant southerly flow today, will push
winds to the north-northeast taking the wind trajectories over Oklahoma,
Arkansas and Missouri. Conditions across
the Plateau will be very good for dispersal, entrainment and downwind
movement. Areas to the north and
northeast of central Texas are susceptible to long distance transport of Ashe
SEVERE Threat today and Moderate Threat Tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen
release today with warm temperatures in the 60s across the region. Winds will be from the south at light to
moderate levels, moving north to northeast.
Across the Edwards Plateau, temperatures will be warmer to the west with
skies clearing this afternoon. Clouds
will build back in tonight and winds will begin to shift, coming from the
northwest by tomorrow. The change will
start in west Texas moving towards the east.
Mostly cloudy skies tonight will keep temperatures in the mid-30s to
mid-40s. Tomorrow, the overall wind
pattern shifts, coming from the north starting with moderate conditions but
building during the afternoon. With
warmer conditions today, the trees are expected to release pollen, and with the
strong winds, entrainment and travel will move pollen to the north/northeast.
Start (s) (shown by black stars on map): Austin, TX
Matrix of sites across the Edwards Plateau (100 meters; 12:00 pm cst)
Prepared by: Estelle Levetin(Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org